Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION AND LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(538 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND BRING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING PROBLEM AS EACH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BRING ADDED RAINFALL TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. ONCE
THE PRIMARY STORM MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA LATER ON
TUESDAY... COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(538 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY...SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL JET CORE...MOVES INTO THE GRR CWA BY
EARLY THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA.
ONCE THAT AREA MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET CORE AIMS AT
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY TONIGHT... THAT WILL TOUCH OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS. THE PROFILES SHOW OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA FROM 15Z THROUGH 24Z TODAY. SINCE THE WIND IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT... MOSTLY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. AS A RESULT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVENING WHILE
THEY WERE CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS I FEEL THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINFALL WOULD BE WITH US AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN AND THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...I
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
AREA BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94.

FINALLY THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW COMES OUT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS THAT HAPPENS YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.  AS WILL SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
EXTENDED RANGE FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY.
TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CHC FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE DRY WX LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...(538 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
INTO TUESDAY.  THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS FRONTAL WAVE PASSES BY. WAVES MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS BY MID DAY MONDAY WILL ALLOW THE WAVES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE MKG AND GRR TAF
SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 1930Z AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1930Z AND 21Z. IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING... THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
45 TO 55 KT RANGE AND HAIL.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. IN FACT THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AT ALL TAF SITES AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE HSA THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR HSA THIS AFTN AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY RAIN. THIS
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THE RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY EVENING AND EARLY
THIS MORNING COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. THEREFORE A FLOOD WARNING
FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR HSA THROUGH NOON MONDAY. A FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE
THORNAPPLE RIVER ABOVE HASTINGS IN BARRY COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE
LLJ INCREASES. IN FACT THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS... ANY
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  AFTER THE FINAL ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... SOME SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DO
INDEED BRING HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWFA THROUGH
02Z.   FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE HSA THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     WDM
SHORT TERM:   WDM
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
MARINE        WDM
AVIATION:     LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:    LAURENS/MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FLOODING WILL BE PROBLEM BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND INTERSTATE 96
WEST OF LANSING AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ROADS MAY HAVE
SECTIONS THAT HAVE TO MUCH WATER OVER THE ROAD TO DRIVE SAFELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK
AND BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

LMZ844>849-091015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE THE SURFACE
VISIBILITY TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HAZARDS TO BOATERS TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BUILD WAVES TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE. WAVES OF THAT HEIGHT AREA DANGEROUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT.
RIPE TIDES MAY BE AN ISSUE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...LARGE WAVES AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BELOW
4 FEET BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. RIPE TIDES MAY BE AN ISSUE MONDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WDM

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