Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(306 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
EACH DAY...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(350 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
A COUPLE OF CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM. FIRST IS THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE OTHER IS
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY.

WE ARE WATCHING THE SEVERE WEATHER UNFOLDING IN WISCONSIN.  BASED ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK THE STORMS COULD ARRIVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES 6 TO 7 PM.  LOOKS LIKE  A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
SO THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE 7 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.   WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER
COULD OCCUR EACH DAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT.  THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH DAY.  THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED
RISK FOR TRAINING...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.  AS THE GROUND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SATURATED...RUNOFF WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT.  WE MAY
NEED FLOOD WATCHES...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS THAT
FRONT TRIES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(350 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM ON TUE HAVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA. THIS WILL LIKELY
TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...PROVIDING A RESIDUAL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM.

COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THEN BY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA. THE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RESET...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...
ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE EAST. ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIPS EAST...DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AND WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER WILL ALSO BUILD IN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...(350 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
I HIGHLIGHT SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS EVENING.  ALSO SOME FOG GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION...(818 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
NUMEROUS TSTMS... SOME CONTAINING SVR WX AND/OR VERY HEAVY RAIN...
WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z OR SO. THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT MKG AND GRR FIRST... BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z... AND A BIT LATER FOR THE OTHER SITES. OCNL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WHEN THE HEAVIER CELLS CROSS THE TERMINALS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE FROM WRN WI SWWD
ACROSS IA THIS EVENING COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WE WILL KEEP PCPN OUT FOR NOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD... AND POSSIBLY ADD IN LATER AS THE
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

SOME FOG DOES LOOK LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE. WINDS HOLDING UP WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES UP A BIT...BUT
SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE. ALSO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS.

LOOK FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(350 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS
OVER GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION.
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER OUR COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.  IF
THEY PERSIST VALUES COULD BECOME EXCESSIVE.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE FLOOD WATCH POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MJS
SHORT TERM:   MJS
LONG TERM:    NJJ
MARINE        MJS
AVIATION:     MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-081015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS IN WISCONSIN ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM.  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT.  IN ADDITION FREQUENT LIGHTNING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBILITIES.  THE MAIN STORM
MOTION WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

RAINFALL RATES COULD TOP AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
IF THE STORMS PERSIST...THE RAINFALL COULD BECOME EXCESSIVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. THAT WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF EACH DAY.

RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY IN PLACES.
THE GROUND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED SO THE RUNOFF WILL
BECOME MORE EFFICIENT.  THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

LMZ844>849-081015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   GUSTY WINDS WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS...INCREASED
WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS...INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

WDM MJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

MIZ043-050-056-057-064-065-071-072-080045-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-KALAMAZOO-KENT-MUSKEGON-OCEANA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
741 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 737 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
WHITEHALL TO SOUTH HAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...

  COVERT...             VAN BUREN ST PARK...  SOUTH HAVEN...
  KIBBIE...             BANGOR...             GLENN...
  LACOTA...             BREEDSVILLE...        GRAND JUNCTION...
  GANGES...             OVAL BEACH...         DOUGLAS...
  PULLMAN...            SAUGATUCK...
  SAUGATUCK STATE PARK...                     FENNVILLE...
  BLOOMINGDALE...       CASTLE PARK...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH
BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4358 8629 4247 8538 4229 8626 4237 8633
      4250 8627 4269 8623 4295 8624 4315 8630
      4340 8646 4354 8649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 254DEG 27KT 4334 8700 4239 8620

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
823 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             PORT SHELDON            42.90N 86.20W
06/07/2008  E0.25 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC

&&

IOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
833 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE HOLLAND            42.80N 86.06W
06/07/2008  M0.40 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.40 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES. PEAK GUST
            ESTIMATED AT 35 MPH.

&&

IOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
839 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE HOLLAND            42.80N 86.06W
06/07/2008  M0.85 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 805 PM.

&&

IOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE HOLLAND            42.80N 86.06W
06/07/2008  M1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 805 PM TO 845 PM.

&&

IOD