Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION AND LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(538 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008)
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND BRING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING PROBLEM AS EACH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BRING ADDED RAINFALL TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. ONCE
THE PRIMARY STORM MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA LATER ON
TUESDAY... COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(538 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY...SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL JET CORE...MOVES INTO THE GRR CWA BY
EARLY THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA.
ONCE THAT AREA MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET CORE AIMS AT
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY TONIGHT... THAT WILL TOUCH OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS. THE PROFILES SHOW OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA FROM 15Z THROUGH 24Z TODAY. SINCE THE WIND IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT... MOSTLY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. AS A RESULT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVENING WHILE
THEY WERE CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS I FEEL THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINFALL WOULD BE WITH US AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN AND THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...I
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
AREA BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94.

FINALLY THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW COMES OUT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS THAT HAPPENS YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.  AS WILL SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
EXTENDED RANGE FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY.
TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CHC FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE DRY WX LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...(538 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
INTO TUESDAY.  THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS FRONTAL WAVE PASSES BY. WAVES MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS BY MID DAY MONDAY WILL ALLOW THE WAVES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE MKG AND GRR TAF
SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 1930Z AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1930Z AND 21Z. IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING... THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
45 TO 55 KT RANGE AND HAIL.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. IN FACT THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AT ALL TAF SITES AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(200 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008)
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE HSA THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR HSA THIS AFTN AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY RAIN. THIS
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THE RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY EVENING AND EARLY
THIS MORNING COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. THEREFORE A FLOOD WARNING
FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR HSA THROUGH NOON MONDAY. A FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE
THORNAPPLE RIVER ABOVE HASTINGS IN BARRY COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE
LLJ INCREASES. IN FACT THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS... ANY
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  AFTER THE FINAL ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... SOME SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DO
INDEED BRING HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWFA THROUGH
02Z.   FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE HSA THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     WDM
SHORT TERM:   WDM
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
MARINE        WDM
AVIATION:     LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:    LAURENS/MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FLOODING WILL BE PROBLEM BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND INTERSTATE 96
WEST OF LANSING AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ROADS MAY HAVE
SECTIONS THAT HAVE TO MUCH WATER OVER THE ROAD TO DRIVE SAFELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK
AND BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

LMZ844>849-091015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE THE SURFACE
VISIBILITY TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HAZARDS TO BOATERS TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BUILD WAVES TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE. WAVES OF THAT HEIGHT AREA DANGEROUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT.
RIPE TIDES MAY BE AN ISSUE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...LARGE WAVES AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BELOW
4 FEET BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. RIPE TIDES MAY BE AN ISSUE MONDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1039 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALLENDALE               42.99N 85.95W
06/08/2008  M3.25 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF JOAL ST AND 68TH AVE.

&&

HOVING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E BATTLE CREEK        42.30N 85.17W
06/08/2008  M2.27 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED FROM 1130PM LAST NIGHT TO 1045AM THIS MORNING.

&&

HOVING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

MIZ037-038-081645-
LAKE-MASON-
1150 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1146 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FREESOIL TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUDINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...

  LAKE MICHIGAN RECREATION AREA...            HAMLIN LAKE...
  LUDINGTON...          FREESOIL...           SCOTTVILLE...
  FOUNTAIN...           CUSTER...             WALHALLA...
  IRONS...              BRANCH...             WOLF LK...
  BALDWIN...            IDLEWILD...           BRISTOL...
  NIRVANA...            CHASE...              LUTHER...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO
BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4420 8636 4419 8631 4419 8630 4417 8557
      4382 8558 4382 8643 4396 8647 4401 8652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 266DEG 32KT 4417 8625 4387 8649

LAURENS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
106 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

MIZ037>039-043>045-050-081800-
LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MUSKEGON-NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-
106 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 102 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FREESOIL TO SILVER LAKE ST PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...

  MEARS...              STONY LAKE...         NEW ERA...
  SILVER LAKE ST PARK...                      ROTHBURY...
  SHELBY...             HAMLIN LAKE...        BIG SABLE POINT...
  LUDINGTON STATE PARK...                     LUDINGTON...
  PENTWATER...          LAKE MICHIGAN RECREATION AREA...
  HART...               FERRY...              ELBRIDGE...
  SCOTTVILLE...         CRYSTAL VALLEY...     CUSTER...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH
BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4419 8638 4418 8530 4358 8526 4345 8648
      4355 8652 4371 8653 4375 8648 4383 8645
      4396 8647 4407 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 244DEG 46KT 4425 8645 4375 8644

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
223 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLAND                 42.77N 86.10W
06/08/2008                   OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. SMALL LIMBS DOWN.

&&

HOVING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
227 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W HOLLAND             42.77N 86.14W
06/08/2008  E45.00 MPH       ALLEGAN            MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ESTIMATED AT HOLLAND STATE PARK.

&&

HOVING