Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Green Bay, WI

July 16, 2008Manitowoc County, Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2008, 3:29 PM CDT for Manitowoc County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 52 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2008, 3:29 PM CDT (20:29 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2008, 4:21 PM CDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Manitowoc County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 16, 3:45 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	St Nazianz, WI	TREE DOWN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 16, 9:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 177 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -330 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGRB 162029
SVRGRB
WIC071-162130-
/O.NEW.KGRB.SV.W.0069.080716T2029Z-080716T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MANITOWOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WINDS TO 60 
MPH...IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLEVELAND

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND
MAY DO SO AGAIN. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4395 8803 4406 8786 4413 8774 4412 8772
      4412 8765 4409 8764 4390 8771 4389 8773
      4388 8801 4389 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 233DEG 15KT 4445 8803 4413 8757

$$

RDM

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 162107
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
407 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC071-162130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080716T2130Z/
MANITOWOC-
406 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY...

AT 405 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHEBOYGAN
FALLS TO MANITOWOC..AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN KIEL AND SAINT NAZIANZ AND 
MAY DO SO AGAIN. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY 
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4390 8787 4396 8778 4403 8773 4408 8767
      4408 8765 4409 8764 4390 8771 4389 8773
      4388 8787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 233DEG 15KT 4377 8787 4406 8751

$$

RDM

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 162121
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
421 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC071-162131-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080716T2130Z/
MANITOWOC-
421 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOWOC COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MANITOWOC COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED...BUT VERY 
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 500 PM AND CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF 
STREET AND URBAN AREAS.

LAT...LON 4390 8787 4396 8778 4403 8773 4408 8767
      4408 8765 4409 8764 4390 8771 4389 8773
      4388 8787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 265DEG 7KT 4380 8793 4416 8751

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 4:07 AM CDT, 11 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 4:07 AM CDT, 11 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
407 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN
TRENDS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW IN CNTRL SD EASTWARD INTO S MN AND CNTRL WI. ISOLD/SCT TSTMS
WERE DEVELOPING FROM ND INTO CNTRL MN...AS ISENT LIFT INCREASED
N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FLOW ALOFT WAS ZONAL...WITH SEVERAL
JET STREAKS MOVG ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A POTENT S/W TROF
AND UPPER DIVG ASSOC WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET WERE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE TSTMS OVER S SASK.

00Z NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
AND PCPN AREAS AT 06Z...SO HAVE FOLLOWED IT FOR THE DETAILS OF THE
FCST. THE NAM ALSO CORRECTLY PICKED UP ON THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD APPROACH OUR SW COUNTIES THIS MORNING...FEEL
THAT MOST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT CHC
THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENT
LIFT INCREASES. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR NW COUNTIES.

ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR AN MCS MOVG THROUGH GRB CWA
TONIGHT...AS THE SFC/H8 WARM FRONTS LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...
AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS THROUGH THE RGN. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 200% OF NORMAL...
K-INDICES OF 35-40 AND H8 DEW POINTS AROUND 14-15 C...FEEL THAT
THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ALREADY SENT
OUT AN UPDATED HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT (ESF) TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
TSTMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS
TO LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WX
GRIDS.

ON THURSDAY...PCPN TRENDS ARE NOT QUITE AS CLEAR. THE STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS...AND H8 FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST NO BETTER THAN SCT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR
NOW.

SIDED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/EXTREME
NORTHERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE CWA WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. MODELS SHOWED HIGH QPF DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...SO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

DID NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD LEAD ONE TO MAKE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RGN TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KIECKBUSCH/MG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 12:01 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-171715-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-171715-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAY IMPACT MARINERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST
OF THIS WEEK.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...
AS A HUMID AIR MASS FLOWS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

JKL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:35 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HAIL             CHILTON                 44.03N 88.16W
07/16/2008  M0.75 INCH       CALUMET            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZED REPORTED.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:54 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             CHILTON                 44.03N 88.16W
07/16/2008  M1.75 INCH       CALUMET            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:57 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             CHILTON                 44.03N 88.16W
07/16/2008  M2.50 INCH       CALUMET            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TENNIS BALL SIZE RECORDED.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 3:22 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
322 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSHKOSH                 44.01N 88.55W
07/16/2008                   WINNEBAGO          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS DOWN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF TOWN AT NEW YORK AND

            BROAD STREETS...ALSO ONE-HALF INCH HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS.

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 WNW HILBERT           44.17N 88.29W
07/16/2008                   CALUMET            WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RUNNING ACROSS HIGHWAY 10 BY MILITARY ROAD...HIGH
            WATER SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 3:25 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
325 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S TIGERTON            44.70N 89.05W
07/16/2008                   SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 3:29 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE MOSINEE            44.82N 89.63W
07/16/2008  M64 MPH          MARATHON           WI   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WAOW-TV. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

JKL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 12:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Marathon	58 min
Jul 16, 12:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Portage, Waupaca	54 min
Jul 16, 12:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Wood	53 min
Jul 16, 12:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Wood	68 min
Jul 16, 1:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	69 min
Jul 16, 1:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GRB	Wood	27 min
Jul 16, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Calumet, Manitowoc, Outagamie, Winnebago	59 min
Jul 16, 1:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Shawano	52 min
Jul 16, 1:41 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GRB	Calumet, Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	2 hr
Jul 16, 2:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	60 min
Jul 16, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Shawano, Waupaca	55 min
Jul 16, 2:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Calumet, Manitowoc, Outagamie	60 min
Jul 16, 2:54 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GRB	Calumet, Manitowoc, Winnebago	111 min
Jul 16, 4:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GRB	Calumet, Manitowoc	81 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.