Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Green Bay, WI

July 16, 2008Shawano County, Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2008, 1:38 PM CDT for Shawano County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 52 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2008, 1:38 PM CDT (18:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2008, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Shawano County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 16, 1:45 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 S Tigerton, WI	TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 16, 9:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 177 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -330 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGRB 161838
SVRGRB
WIC115-161930-
/O.NEW.KGRB.SV.W.0065.080716T1838Z-080716T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
138 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SHAWANO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 133 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF WESTON
  TO BEVENT TO AMHERST TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF WITTENBERG..AND MOVING
  EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHITCOMB...TILLEDA...TIGERTON AND SPLIT ROCK.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND
MAY DO SO AGAIN. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

CAMPERS AND OTHERS OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4504 8911 4502 8900 4489 8894 4467 8869
      4467 8881 4468 8882 4468 8920 4491 8922
      4503 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 276DEG 28KT 4494 8930 4468 8917
          4453 8930 4468 8916

$$

RDM

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 161854 RRA
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
154 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC115-161930-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-080716T1930Z/
SHAWANO-
153 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SHAWANO COUNTY...

AT 151 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN 
SHAWANO COUNTY.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAROLINE AND BOWLER BY 205 PM...
  TILLEDA AND CAROLINE BY 210 PM...
  PELLA AND LEOPOLIS BY 215 PM...

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE WINDS OVER 60 MPH. IF OUTDOORS...MOVE
TO A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4498 8921 4498 8911 4497 8901 4489 8894
      4467 8869 4467 8880 4468 8882 4468 8920
      4491 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 276DEG 28KT 4493 8914 4467 8901
          4452 8914 4467 8900

$$

JKL

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 161922
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
222 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC115-161931-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-080716T1930Z/
SHAWANO-
221 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN SHAWANO COUNTY WILL 
EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTY 
UNTIL 315 PM.

LAT...LON 4498 8921 4498 8911 4497 8901 4489 8894
      4467 8869 4467 8880 4468 8882 4468 8920
      4491 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 276DEG 28KT 4491 8883 4465 8871
          4450 8884 4465 8870

$$

JKL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 4:07 AM CDT, 9 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 4:07 AM CDT, 9 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
407 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN
TRENDS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW IN CNTRL SD EASTWARD INTO S MN AND CNTRL WI. ISOLD/SCT TSTMS
WERE DEVELOPING FROM ND INTO CNTRL MN...AS ISENT LIFT INCREASED
N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FLOW ALOFT WAS ZONAL...WITH SEVERAL
JET STREAKS MOVG ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A POTENT S/W TROF
AND UPPER DIVG ASSOC WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET WERE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE TSTMS OVER S SASK.

00Z NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
AND PCPN AREAS AT 06Z...SO HAVE FOLLOWED IT FOR THE DETAILS OF THE
FCST. THE NAM ALSO CORRECTLY PICKED UP ON THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD APPROACH OUR SW COUNTIES THIS MORNING...FEEL
THAT MOST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT CHC
THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENT
LIFT INCREASES. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR NW COUNTIES.

ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR AN MCS MOVG THROUGH GRB CWA
TONIGHT...AS THE SFC/H8 WARM FRONTS LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...
AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS THROUGH THE RGN. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 200% OF NORMAL...
K-INDICES OF 35-40 AND H8 DEW POINTS AROUND 14-15 C...FEEL THAT
THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ALREADY SENT
OUT AN UPDATED HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT (ESF) TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
TSTMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAVE BOOSTED POPS
TO LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WX
GRIDS.

ON THURSDAY...PCPN TRENDS ARE NOT QUITE AS CLEAR. THE STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS...AND H8 FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST NO BETTER THAN SCT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR
NOW.

SIDED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/EXTREME
NORTHERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE CWA WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. MODELS SHOWED HIGH QPF DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...SO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

DID NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD LEAD ONE TO MAKE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RGN TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KIECKBUSCH/MG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 12:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-171715-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-171715-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAY IMPACT MARINERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST
OF THIS WEEK.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...
AS A HUMID AIR MASS FLOWS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

JKL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:04 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
104 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     HAIL             MARATHON CITY           44.95N 89.84W
07/16/2008  M0.25 INCH       MARATHON           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            45 MPH MEASURED WINDS WITH PEA SIZE REPORTED.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:07 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
107 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 AM     TSTM WND GST     MARATHON CITY           44.95N 89.84W
07/16/2008  M53 MPH          MARATHON           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            1/4 INCH SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

AUSTIN

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:13 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
113 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARATHON CITY           44.95N 89.84W
07/16/2008  M53.00 MPH       MARATHON           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            1/4 INCH HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:19 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
119 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N WISCONSIN RAPIDS    44.44N 89.84W
07/16/2008                   WOOD               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 34 AND REDDIN ROAD.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:23 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
123 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND MOSINEE                 44.78N 89.69W
07/16/2008  M34 MPH          MARATHON           WI   AWOS

            55 KNOT WINDS.

&&

MARQUIS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:24 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
124 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HAIL             DALE                    44.26N 88.68W
07/16/2008  M0.75 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZED REPORTED.

&&

MARQUIS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 12:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Marathon	58 min
Jul 16, 12:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Portage, Waupaca	54 min
Jul 16, 12:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Wood	53 min
Jul 16, 12:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Wood	68 min
Jul 16, 1:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	69 min
Jul 16, 1:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GRB	Wood	27 min
Jul 16, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Calumet, Manitowoc, Outagamie, Winnebago	59 min
Jul 16, 1:41 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GRB	Calumet, Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	2 hr
Jul 16, 2:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	60 min
Jul 16, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Shawano, Waupaca	55 min
Jul 16, 2:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Calumet, Manitowoc, Outagamie	60 min
Jul 16, 2:54 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GRB	Calumet, Manitowoc, Winnebago	111 min
Jul 16, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Manitowoc	52 min
Jul 16, 4:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GRB	Calumet, Manitowoc	81 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.