Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.AVIATION...
544 AM CDT
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS 60NM NW OF KDFW AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 13-15Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS TARRANT COUNTY WELL AHEAD OF THE
STORM COMPLEX...AND THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT KFTW...KAFW...AND PERHAPS
KDFW BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS IS
THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z BEFORE ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST OF AREA. WILL KEEP KACT DRY SINCE THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.   /09

&&

.DISCUSSION...
410 AM CDT
THE MCS THAT EXTENDED NORTH OF A THROCKMORTON TO PAULS VALLEY
OKLAHOMA LINE AS 09Z...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND TAPERED THEM OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS MORNING. WHATEVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFT OVER MAY BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MCS TRAIN
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS.
ONCE AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LOWER CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST. AFTERWARDS...WE SHOULD SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE WE SEE
SOME LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES ACROSS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE NORTH SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS FOR NOW. AS A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
THURSDAY AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. #58

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  74  91  73  94 /  40  50  30  20  10
WACO, TX              96  74  94  71  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  84  67  89 /  20  60  50  30  20
DENTON, TX            92  71  88  70  91 /  40  50  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          90  69  87  68  91 /  30  50  40  20  10
DALLAS, TX            91  74  90  72  93 /  30  50  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  71  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  91  71  92 /  30  30  30  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            96  73  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-192145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
650 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO FRANKLIN. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AND PALESTINE AREAS THIS MORNING.

THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AFTER 11 AM AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ119-134-191315-
DALLAS TX-ELLIS TX-
718 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY

AT 718 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF DESOTO TO 3 MILES EAST OF
PECAN HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DESOTO...DUNCANVILLE...
FERRIS...GLENN HEIGHTS...HUTCHINS...LANCASTER...OAK LEAF...OVILLA...
RED OAK AND WILMER.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3258 9658 3239 9675 3260 9698 3274 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 311DEG 6KT 3261 9682

85/NH

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