Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.AVIATION...
544 AM CDT
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS 60NM NW OF KDFW AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 13-15Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS TARRANT COUNTY WELL AHEAD OF THE
STORM COMPLEX...AND THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT KFTW...KAFW...AND PERHAPS
KDFW BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS IS
THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z BEFORE ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST OF AREA. WILL KEEP KACT DRY SINCE THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.   /09

&&

.DISCUSSION...
410 AM CDT
THE MCS THAT EXTENDED NORTH OF A THROCKMORTON TO PAULS VALLEY
OKLAHOMA LINE AS 09Z...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND TAPERED THEM OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS MORNING. WHATEVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFT OVER MAY BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MCS TRAIN
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS.
ONCE AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LOWER CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST. AFTERWARDS...WE SHOULD SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE WE SEE
SOME LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES ACROSS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE NORTH SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS FOR NOW. AS A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
THURSDAY AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. #58

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  74  91  73  94 /  40  50  30  20  10
WACO, TX              96  74  94  71  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  84  67  89 /  20  60  50  30  20
DENTON, TX            92  71  88  70  91 /  40  50  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          90  69  87  68  91 /  30  50  40  20  10
DALLAS, TX            91  74  90  72  93 /  30  50  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  71  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  91  71  92 /  30  30  30  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            96  73  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-192145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
403 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO GAINESVILLE. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL AFFECT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AFTER 8 AM THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ101-191045-
JACK TX-
508 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  JACK COUNTY

AT 508 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
26 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRYSON AND JACKSBORO.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZED HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3344 9798 3343 9794 3303 9794 3302 9839
      3346 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1008Z 298DEG 23KT 3347 9847

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ091-092-191100-
MONTAGUE TX-COOKE TX-
532 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 532 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES EAST OF NOCONA...AND NEAR BOWIE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 18 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...CALLISBURG...
GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY...MUENSTER...NOCONA...ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND
STONEBURG.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3389 9694 3343 9694 3344 9793 3382 9798
      3385 9745 3383 9739 3386 9735 3387 9716
      3383 9720 3377 9719 3373 9715 3373 9710
      3380 9710 3382 9706 3385 9709 3385 9702
      3388 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 306DEG 15KT 3375 9746

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ091-092-191130-
MONTAGUE TX-COOKE TX-
558 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 558 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE...TO NEAR BOWIE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...CALLISBURG...
GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY...MUENSTER...ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3376 9699 3344 9696 3344 9794 3367 9795
      3374 9717 3373 9715 3373 9710 3375 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 302DEG 13KT 3354 9745

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ116-191145-
PALO PINTO TX-
617 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 617 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAFORD AND MINERAL WELLS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3292 9836 3301 9827 3300 9826 3300 9819
      3301 9818 3300 9806 3274 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1117Z 304DEG 12KT 3294 9821

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ103-118-191200-
DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-
623 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DENTON COUNTY
  TARRANT COUNTY

AT 623 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
SANGER...TO NEAR DECATUR...TO JUST WEST OF SPRINGTOWN. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH.

IF THESE STORMS PERSIST AND CONTINUE ON THEIR PRESENT COURSE...
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3342 9685 3301 9686 3300 9703 3258 9707
      3256 9753 3299 9753 3300 9739 3340 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 317DEG 23KT 3317 9762