Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.AVIATION...
544 AM CDT
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS 60NM NW OF KDFW AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 13-15Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS TARRANT COUNTY WELL AHEAD OF THE
STORM COMPLEX...AND THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT KFTW...KAFW...AND PERHAPS
KDFW BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS IS
THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z BEFORE ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST OF AREA. WILL KEEP KACT DRY SINCE THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.   /09

&&

.DISCUSSION...
410 AM CDT
THE MCS THAT EXTENDED NORTH OF A THROCKMORTON TO PAULS VALLEY
OKLAHOMA LINE AS 09Z...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND TAPERED THEM OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS MORNING. WHATEVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFT OVER MAY BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MCS TRAIN
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS.
ONCE AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LOWER CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST. AFTERWARDS...WE SHOULD SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE WE SEE
SOME LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES ACROSS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE NORTH SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS FOR NOW. AS A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
THURSDAY AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. #58

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  74  91  73  94 /  40  50  30  20  10
WACO, TX              96  74  94  71  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  84  67  89 /  20  60  50  30  20
DENTON, TX            92  71  88  70  91 /  40  50  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          90  69  87  68  91 /  30  50  40  20  10
DALLAS, TX            91  74  90  72  93 /  30  50  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  71  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  91  71  92 /  30  30  30  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            96  73  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-192145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
650 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO FRANKLIN. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AND PALESTINE AREAS THIS MORNING.

THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AFTER 11 AM AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ091-092-191130-
MONTAGUE TX-COOKE TX-
558 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 558 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE...TO NEAR BOWIE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...CALLISBURG...
GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY...MUENSTER...ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3376 9699 3344 9696 3344 9794 3367 9795
      3374 9717 3373 9715 3373 9710 3375 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 302DEG 13KT 3354 9745

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ116-191145-
PALO PINTO TX-
617 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 617 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAFORD AND MINERAL WELLS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3292 9836 3301 9827 3300 9826 3300 9819
      3301 9818 3300 9806 3274 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1117Z 304DEG 12KT 3294 9821

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ103-118-191200-
DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-
623 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DENTON COUNTY
  TARRANT COUNTY

AT 623 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
SANGER...TO NEAR DECATUR...TO JUST WEST OF SPRINGTOWN. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH.

IF THESE STORMS PERSIST AND CONTINUE ON THEIR PRESENT COURSE...
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3342 9685 3301 9686 3300 9703 3258 9707
      3256 9753 3299 9753 3300 9739 3340 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 317DEG 23KT 3317 9762

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ119-191215-
DALLAS TX-
643 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY

AT 643 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 4 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COCKRELL HILL...DESOTO...
DUNCANVILLE...HUTCHINS...LANCASTER AND WILMER.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3277 9690 3269 9659 3255 9661 3260 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 299DEG 3KT 3266 9681

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 AM     TSTM WND GST     COOL                    32.80N  98.01W
06/19/2008  E60 MPH          PARKER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER