River Flood Warning 73, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SPS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN FTW AND AFW...AND DTO.  DFW
DAL AND ACT MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY
WILL BE MUCH MORE SPORADIC.  SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.

EXPECT MVFR CEILING TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS MAY TEMPORARILY LIFT TO 3000 FT FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN
THIS EVENING AND FALL TO IFR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  CEILINGS WILL NOT
LIFT ABOVE 1000 FT UNTIL AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A SOUTHEAST WIND EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO BECOME
EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

.79...
&&

.UPDATE...
1044 AM
HAVE EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. FEEL THAT
AREA NEAR RED RIVER...AND ALSO NEAR UPPER LOW...HAS THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO WICHITA FALLS AREA LAST NIGHT. CAN
NOT TELL FOR CERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS THREAT GOES...BUT IT COULD
IMPACT NORTHERN METROPLEX AS WELL. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN REST OF
WATCH AREA HAS SATURATED GROUND AND NEW RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF
QUICKLY. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ALSO...BUT MAIN UPDATE IS TO
INCREASE POPS AND QPF IN NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.   84

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
CIGS HAVE DROPPED INTO IFR IN THE METROPLEX AND LIFR AT KACT.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SHOULD REACH MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE AIRPORTS WILL BE THIS MORNING
AND THEN MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR EXCEPT FOR IN SHOWERS. A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST. A SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS RELATED TO UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING SEWD ACROSS THE
CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS AREAS...WHERE NOCTURNALLY...MOST
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED IN/JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
THIS CIRCULATION ALOFT. GUT FEELING IS THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING ON
HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS OF A WARM CORE/TROPICAL/ AND COLD CORE SYSTEM
NOW THAT IT/S ENTERING A REGION OF TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE. WITH SLOW
SEWD DRIFT OVER N TX EXPECTED TODAY AND STRIPE OF BETTER MOISTURE
BEING OVER THE NE 1/2 OF N TX...THIS IS HOW WELL ALIGN BEST POPS/
WEATHER AS WELL. CATEGORICAL NRN/ERN COUNTIES...TAPERING DOWN TO
LIKELY/CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW...WHERE SOME DRIER MID-LVL AIR WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN IN FOR MORE DIURNAL/SCATTERED COVERAGE.

PER RADAR/GAGE QPF AMOUNTS PAST 24 HRS...AND EXPECTED QPF TODAY OVER
AREAS N OF I-20/E OF I-35...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR AND ALONG/EAST OF
I-35 CORRIDOR. THOUGH RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE PERIODIC OVER CONSTANT
...THE THOUGHT HERE IS THAT WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS WITH SOME 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL SHUNT SSE AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WRN HALF
OF CWA TONIGHT INTO WED...WITH BEST MOISTURE/LIFT E OF I-35 AND WILL
HOLD HIGHEST POPS OVER ERN COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE WEST. UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM AREA WED NIGHT/THURS AS
KICKER SYSTEM BEGINS DROPPING SE THROUGH THE PAC NW/ROCKIES. DURING
THIS TIME...WE EXPECT MORE DIURNAL TYPE ACTIVITY WITH BETTER CHANCES
E OF I-35. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI...SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY AND SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THE
RESULT. WEVE LIKELY BEEN SPOILED WITH THESE COOLER TEMPS...BUT THE
90S WILL RETURN AS WE REMAIN IN THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST. LOW POPS
NEXT WEEKEND ONLY DUE TO WEAKNESS IN UPPER LEVELS OVER EAST TX...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD THIS FAR OUT. /05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  70  84  72  91 /  90  60  40  20  20
WACO, TX              83  69  87  70  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  66  80  66  87 / 100  70  60  40  40
DENTON, TX            78  67  83  68  90 / 100  60  40  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          79  66  82  67  89 / 100  70  60  30  20
DALLAS, TX            79  70  83  72  90 /  90  60  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           79  69  82  69  90 /  90  70  60  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         83  70  85  69  92 /  80  60  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  69  87  69  92 /  70  50  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING OVER FOUR INCHES
OF RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO FORT WORTH TO
KILLEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THEN OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR FLOODING REPORTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1029 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KOSSE                   31.31N  96.63W
08/19/2008                   LIMESTONE          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROX 3 HOMES FLOODED IN THE 300 BLOCK OF SOUTH
            NARCISSUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E TRHORNTON           31.41N  96.47W
08/19/2008                   LIMESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER FM937

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW GROESBECK         31.42N  96.65W
08/19/2008                   LIMESTONE          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER FM339 IN SEVEN PLACES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KOSSE                   31.31N  96.63W
08/19/2008                   LIMESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS CLOSED EAST OF THORNTON. SEVERAL
            HOUSES PARTIALLY FLOODED IN KOSSE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE BREMOND            31.13N  96.64W
08/19/2008                   ROBERTSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 46 AT WALNUT CREEK CROSSING. TXDOT
            HAS CLOSED ROADWAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     FLOOD            KRUM                    33.27N  97.23W
08/19/2008                   DENTON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HICKORY RD SOUTH AT FM 1173 CLOSED DUE TO WATER