Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 191356
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TXC145-331-395-191445-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-080819T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FALLS TX-ROBERTSON TX-MILAM TX-
856 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL MILAM...EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ROBERTSON AND FALLS COUNTIES...

AT 853 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED   A 
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CENTERED 5 
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. RADAR INDICATES 
THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN 
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 945 AM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN 
INCLUDE MARLIN...LOTT...AND ROSEBUD.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

DURING HEAVY RAINS...STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CREEKS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. THEY ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD
QUICKLY. REMEMBER FLOODING IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF WEATHER RELATED
DEATHS.

LAT...LON 3100 9709 3102 9709 3106 9713 3109 9714
      3114 9718 3116 9718 3120 9722 3142 9686
      3107 9666 3095 9706

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 191451
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TXC145-331-395-191457-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-080819T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FALLS TX-ROBERTSON TX-MILAM TX-
951 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MILAM...EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL ROBERTSON AND FALLS COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 945 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRED AT 945 AM CDT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MILAM COUNTY...NEAR AND NORTH 
OF CAMERON...THROUGH 1030 AM. THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WAS MOVING EAST AT 
10 MPH.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR PARTS 
OF ROBERTSON...EXTREME EASTERN FALLS...LIMESTONE...FREESTONE...AND 
LEON COUNTIES. HEAVY RAINS REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THESE AREAS.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
FORT WORTH.

LAT...LON 3100 9709 3102 9709 3106 9713 3109 9714
      3114 9718 3116 9718 3120 9722 3142 9686
      3107 9666 3095 9706

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
CIGS HAVE DROPPED INTO IFR IN THE METROPLEX AND LIFR AT KACT.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SHOULD REACH MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE AIRPORTS WILL BE THIS MORNING
AND THEN MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR EXCEPT FOR IN SHOWERS. A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST. A SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS RELATED TO UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING SEWD ACROSS THE
CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS AREAS...WHERE NOCTURNALLY...MOST
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED IN/JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
THIS CIRCULATION ALOFT. GUT FEELING IS THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING ON
HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS OF A WARM CORE/TROPICAL/ AND COLD CORE SYSTEM
NOW THAT IT/S ENTERING A REGION OF TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE. WITH SLOW
SEWD DRIFT OVER N TX EXPECTED TODAY AND STRIPE OF BETTER MOISTURE
BEING OVER THE NE 1/2 OF N TX...THIS IS HOW WELL ALIGN BEST POPS/
WEATHER AS WELL. CATEGORICAL NRN/ERN COUNTIES...TAPERING DOWN TO
LIKELY/CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW...WHERE SOME DRIER MID-LVL AIR WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN IN FOR MORE DIURNAL/SCATTERED COVERAGE.

PER RADAR/GAGE QPF AMOUNTS PAST 24 HRS...AND EXPECTED QPF TODAY OVER
AREAS N OF I-20/E OF I-35...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR AND ALONG/EAST OF
I-35 CORRIDOR. THOUGH RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE PERIODIC OVER CONSTANT
...THE THOUGHT HERE IS THAT WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS WITH SOME 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL SHUNT SSE AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WRN HALF
OF CWA TONIGHT INTO WED...WITH BEST MOISTURE/LIFT E OF I-35 AND WILL
HOLD HIGHEST POPS OVER ERN COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE WEST. UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM AREA WED NIGHT/THURS AS
KICKER SYSTEM BEGINS DROPPING SE THROUGH THE PAC NW/ROCKIES. DURING
THIS TIME...WE EXPECT MORE DIURNAL TYPE ACTIVITY WITH BETTER CHANCES
E OF I-35. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI...SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY AND SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THE
RESULT. WEVE LIKELY BEEN SPOILED WITH THESE COOLER TEMPS...BUT THE
90S WILL RETURN AS WE REMAIN IN THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST. LOW POPS
NEXT WEEKEND ONLY DUE TO WEAKNESS IN UPPER LEVELS OVER EAST TX...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD THIS FAR OUT.

/05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  84  72  91 /  90  60  40  20  20
WACO, TX              85  69  87  70  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
PARIS, TX             75  66  80  66  87 / 100  70  60  40  40
DENTON, TX            78  67  83  68  90 / 100  60  40  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          77  66  82  67  89 / 100  70  60  30  20
DALLAS, TX            79  70  83  72  90 /  90  60  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  69  90 /  90  70  60  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  85  69  92 /  80  70  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  69  87  69  92 /  70  50  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

82/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
317 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN HAZARDOUS THREAT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THEN OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

82/JLD