Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 191159
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TXC145-161-293-191345-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-080819T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-FALLS TX-
659 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN FALLS...SOUTHERN LIMESTONE AND FREESTONE COUNTIES...

 AT 657 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED   
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE STORMS 
PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. RADAR INDICATES 
THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN...PARTICULARLY IN 
FREESTONE AND MILAM COUNTY. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 845 AM CDT. WATER WAS REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 14 NEAR THE 
MILAM AND LIMESTONE COUNTY LINE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE FAIRFIELD LAKE STATE PARK...TEAGUE AND FAIRFIELD.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY...SO DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE
ROAD. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST
SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

LAT...LON 3117 9673 3142 9685 3189 9603 3183 9597
      3180 9598 3177 9594 3177 9590 3173 9587
      3170 9587 3169 9586 3170 9583 3166 9579

$$

82/JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS RELATED TO UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING SEWD ACROSS THE
CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS AREAS...WHERE NOCTURNALLY...MOST
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED IN/JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
THIS CIRCULATION ALOFT. GUT FEELING IS THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING ON
HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS OF A WARM CORE/TROPICAL/ AND COLD CORE SYSTEM
NOW THAT IT/S ENTERING A REGION OF TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE. WITH SLOW
SEWD DRIFT OVER N TX EXPECTED TODAY AND STRIPE OF BETTER MOISTURE
BEING OVER THE NE 1/2 OF N TX...THIS IS HOW WELL ALIGN BEST POPS/
WEATHER AS WELL. CATEGORICAL NRN/ERN COUNTIES...TAPERING DOWN TO
LIKELY/CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW...WHERE SOME DRIER MID-LVL AIR WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN IN FOR MORE DIURNAL/SCATTERED COVERAGE.

PER RADAR/GAGE QPF AMOUNTS PAST 24 HRS...AND EXPECTED QPF TODAY OVER
AREAS N OF I-20/E OF I-35...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR AND ALONG/EAST OF
I-35 CORRIDOR. THOUGH RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE PERIODIC OVER CONSTANT
...THE THOUGHT HERE IS THAT WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS WITH SOME 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL SHUNT SSE AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WRN HALF
OF CWA TONIGHT INTO WED...WITH BEST MOISTURE/LIFT E OF I-35 AND WILL
HOLD HIGHEST POPS OVER ERN COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE WEST. UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM AREA WED NIGHT/THURS AS
KICKER SYSTEM BEGINS DROPPING SE THROUGH THE PAC NW/ROCKIES. DURING
THIS TIME...WE EXPECT MORE DIURNAL TYPE ACTIVITY WITH BETTER CHANCES
E OF I-35. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI...SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY AND SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THE
RESULT. WEVE LIKELY BEEN SPOILED WITH THESE COOLER TEMPS...BUT THE
90S WILL RETURN AS WE REMAIN IN THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST. LOW POPS
NEXT WEEKEND ONLY DUE TO WEAKNESS IN UPPER LEVELS OVER EAST TX...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT GOOD THIS FAR OUT.

/05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  84  72  91 /  90  60  40  20  20
WACO, TX              85  69  87  70  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
PARIS, TX             75  66  80  66  87 / 100  70  60  40  40
DENTON, TX            78  67  83  68  90 / 100  60  40  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          77  66  82  67  89 / 100  70  60  30  20
DALLAS, TX            79  70  83  72  90 /  90  60  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  69  90 /  90  70  60  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  85  69  92 /  80  70  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  69  87  69  92 /  70  50  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
317 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN HAZARDOUS THREAT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THEN OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

82/JLD