Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE AREA. A STRONG SPEED MAX AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY INTO WESTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON
MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL UTILIZE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST INTO MN THROUGH THE
EVENING. CAPES RISE TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR FROM
25-50KT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LI/S GET VERY UNSTABLE...AND APPROACH
-6C IN THE SOUTH. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S...THEN THE GFS -8C LI/S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. DCAPE WILL BE
HIGH...AND SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ORGANIZED MINI BOW ECHO THAT IS SOMETIMES SEEN IN NW FLOW CASES.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALSO LOW...AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WE
EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...BUT
WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED. WE WILL MENTION
SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FROM 21Z- 03Z...AND TAPER OFF THUNDER THREAT
THEREAFTER.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
COOL TO AROUND +4C...EVEN COOLER WITH THE GFS...AND A COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FOR THE NE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND WITH VERY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS...WILL KEEP IT DRY. BY MON NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE
RIDGE WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SHOWALTERS GO
NEGATIVE. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT. WILL ADD SOME POPS TO THE MON NIGHT
TIMEFRAME IN THE NORTH.

FOR TUE...RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND THERMAL FIELDS RISE. THIS
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SO WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ATTM. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN WITH THE MEAN 500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE N
PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT THE L/W
TROF RESULTING IN SFC INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
-SHRA AND -TSRA THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD OVER THE FA. LOOKING FOR
-TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DYNAMICS COME
TOGETHER TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/HOPKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
 EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AFTER 3PM WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             DEVILS LAKE             48.11N 98.87W
06/14/2008  E0.75 INCH       RAMSEY             ND   PUBLIC

&&

AH