River Flood Warning 13, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WGUS83 KFGF 141943
FLSFGF
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
243 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE 
  RED RIVER AT OSLO AFFECTING MARSHALL AND WALSH COUNTIES
 
.RIVER LEVELS AT OSLO HAVE RISEN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WHILE THE 
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED 
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE 
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND 
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY.

SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN... 
 
 - DONT TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS

 - CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS 

THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR 
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.

MNC089-NDC099-160743-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0013.080617T0200Z-080620T1836Z/
/OSLM5.1.ER.080617T0200Z.080619T0000Z.080620T0336Z.NO/
243 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE RED RIVER AT OSLO 
FOR MINOR FLOODING...  

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  RED RIVER AT OSLO
* UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY JUNE 19
* AT 2 PM SATURDAY JUNE 14 THE STAGE WAS...22.1 FT.    
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.  
* FLOOD STAGE IS...26.0 FT. MODERATE...30.0 FT. MAJOR...36.0 FT.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE  23.0 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN 
  EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF   26.0 FT MONDAY BEFORE 
  MIDNIGHT THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND  27.5 FT WEDNESDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON THEN FLUCTUATE AROUND 27.5 FT THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 26.0 FT THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN 
  FALL BELOW  23.0 FT SATURDAY MORNING THEN RECEDE TO AROUND 22.0 FT 
  SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 28.0 FEET, NORTH DAKOTA APPROACH TO OLD HWY
  1 BRIDGE IS IMPASSABLE.

&& 

DAILY 1 PM CDT/NOON CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                SUN    MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT
(MONTH/DAY)         06/15  06/16  06/17  06/18  06/19  06/20  06/21

RED RIVER
  OSLO              23.9   25.6   26.8   27.4   26.8   24.5   22.0

$$

000 
WGUS83 KFGF 151525
FLSFGF
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

 
  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE 
  RED RIVER AT OSLO AFFECTING MARSHALL AND WALSH COUNTIES
  
  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE 
  BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE 
  RED RIVER AT FARGO AFFECTING CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  

.RIVER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AT OSLO...DILWORTH...AND FARGO. FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS 
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED 
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE 
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND 
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN... 
 
 - DONT TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS

 - CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS 

THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR 
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.

MNC027-NDC017-170325-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080619T2100Z/
/FGON8.1.ER.080608T2130Z.080613T0745Z.080619T0600Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 19.0 FEET, FARGO...LOW-LEVEL DAM SOUTH OF 
  MAIN AVENUE IS UNDERWATER.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN
(MONTH/DAY)         06/16  06/17  06/18  06/19  06/20  06/21  06/22

RED RIVER
  FARGO             18.6   18.4   18.2   17.9   17.7   17.5   17.2

$$

MNC089-NDC099-170325-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0013.080617T0959Z-080620T1836Z/
/OSLM5.1.ER.080617T0959Z.080619T0000Z.080620T0336Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT OSLO.
* FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 27.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 28.0 FEET, NORTH DAKOTA APPROACH TO OLD HWY
  1 BRIDGE IS IMPASSABLE.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN
(MONTH/DAY)         06/16  06/17  06/18  06/19  06/20  06/21  06/22

RED RIVER
  OSLO              24.9   26.1   27.1   27.2   25.2   22.5   19.8

$$

MNC027-170325-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080619T1100Z/
/DILM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.080613T0530Z.080618T2000Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 14.9 FEET, BOTTOM OF STEEL BRIDGE CAUSES 
  UPSTREAM ROAD TO FLOOD.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN
(MONTH/DAY)         06/16  06/17  06/18  06/19  06/20  06/21  06/22

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH          14.6   13.7   12.5   11.1    9.7    8.7    7.8

$$

000 
WGUS83 KFGF 161442
FLSFGF
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

 
  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS RED 
  RIVER AT OSLO AFFECTING MARSHALL AND WALSH COUNTIES
  
 
.DRIER WEATHER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS ALLOWED RIVER LEVELS
TO RECOVER. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE RIVER TO CREST AND THE STAGE TO
SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED 
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE 
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND 
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.

SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN... 
 
 - DONT TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS

 - CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS 

THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR 
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.

MNC089-NDC099-161512-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080620T1836Z/
/OSLM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
942 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT OSLO.
* AT 9:15 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 24.5 FEET 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 25.5 FEET, COUNTY ROAD 2 BETWEEN SECTIONS 2
  & 11 PULASKI TOWNSHIP IS UNDER WATER.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         06/17  06/18  06/19  06/20  06/21  06/22  06/23

RED RIVER
  OSLO              24.5   24.3   23.8   23.0   21.9   20.4   18.6

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE AREA. A STRONG SPEED MAX AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY INTO WESTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON
MOISTURE FIELDS SO WILL UTILIZE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST INTO MN THROUGH THE
EVENING. CAPES RISE TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR FROM
25-50KT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LI/S GET VERY UNSTABLE...AND APPROACH
-6C IN THE SOUTH. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S...THEN THE GFS -8C LI/S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. DCAPE WILL BE
HIGH...AND SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ORGANIZED MINI BOW ECHO THAT IS SOMETIMES SEEN IN NW FLOW CASES.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALSO LOW...AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WE
EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...BUT
WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED. WE WILL MENTION
SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FROM 21Z- 03Z...AND TAPER OFF THUNDER THREAT
THEREAFTER.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
COOL TO AROUND +4C...EVEN COOLER WITH THE GFS...AND A COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FOR THE NE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND WITH VERY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS...WILL KEEP IT DRY. BY MON NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE
RIDGE WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SHOWALTERS GO
NEGATIVE. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT. WILL ADD SOME POPS TO THE MON NIGHT
TIMEFRAME IN THE NORTH.

FOR TUE...RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND THERMAL FIELDS RISE. THIS
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SO WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ATTM. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN WITH THE MEAN 500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE N
PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT THE L/W
TROF RESULTING IN SFC INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
-SHRA AND -TSRA THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD OVER THE FA. LOOKING FOR
-TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DYNAMICS COME
TOGETHER TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/HOPKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
 EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AFTER 3PM WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VOELKER