Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE HAD SVR WX ALL AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE THIS SHORT. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE AL/GA STATE LINE WEST OF CARROLLTON
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TO NORTHEAST. SPC
HAS PUT MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF SEVERE WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
18Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH HELICITY VALUES
OF 536 M2/S2 AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES VALUES OF NEAR 800 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -5 TO -6 TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED AND CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ATLANTA METRO AREA IS
UNDER THE GUN RIGHT NOW.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT ENDING THE
SVR WX THREAT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXTREME
CIRCUMSTANCES TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TUES AND MS VALLEY WED...HOWEVER GFS KEEPS SYSTEM MUCH MORE
INTENSE THAN ECMWF. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA ON WED SO
HAVE KEPT THIS GOING. INITIAL PROGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...LETS HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 3Z...ESPECIALLY
AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES...UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES IN...SO TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS MAY INTERRUPT VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 6Z...STRATUS DECK MAY
SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH...GETTING AS LOW AS 2K FT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM AROUND 220 DEGREES
JUST AFTER 0Z TAF TIME IN THE NORTH...AND BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 KTS. FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE IN SOUTH TAFS BY AROUND 6Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF DAY TOMORROW...WITH
POSSIBLE SHIFTING TO EAST OF DUE NORTH AFTER 17Z TOMORROW. THE WINDS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG THREAT FROM WET GROUND.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  70  40  67  43 /  30   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         42  67  42  68  44 /  20   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  64  33 /  30   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  37  68  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        51  74  45  73  48 /  20   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     46  66  40  66  42 /  20   0   0   0  10
MACON           45  73  41  71  41 /  30   0   0   0  10
ROME            46  68  40  69  43 /  20   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  44  67  38  68  41 /  20   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         49  73  40  70  43 /  40   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161230-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
520 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH AND
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED WAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS
FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE.
HIGH CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE LIFTED INDICES ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. STRONG WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
637 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             NICHOLSON               34.11N 83.43W
03/15/2008  E2.50 INCH       JACKSON            GA   PUBLIC

&&

GRIFFITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             6 SSE MADISON           33.50N 83.44W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       MORGAN             GA   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIESIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
702 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRIFFIN                 33.24N 84.27W
03/15/2008                   SPALDING           GA   PUBLIC

            MANY TREES DOWN...ONE CAUSED DAMAGE TO OUT BUILDING.
            SHINGLES OFF ROOF.

0615 PM     HAIL             GRIFFIN                 33.24N 84.27W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       SPALDING           GA   PUBLIC

&&

GRIFFITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 33.29N 83.96W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       BUTTS              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GRIFFITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             LOUISVILLE              33.00N 82.40W
03/15/2008  E1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MGRIESIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEACHTREE CITY          33.39N 84.57W
03/15/2008                   FAYETTE            GA   PUBLIC

            FOUR TREES DOWN IN WILSHIRE ESTATES SUBDIVISON NEAR HWY
            74 SOUTH.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EATONTON                33.32N 83.39W
03/15/2008                   PUTNAM             GA   PUBLIC

            SOME DAMAGE TO DECK AND SOME TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0630 PM     HAIL             FLOVILLA                33.25N 83.90W
03/15/2008  E1.25 INCH       BUTTS              GA   PUBLIC

0700 PM     HAIL             MILLEDGEVILLE           33.09N 83.24W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       BALDWIN            GA   PUBLIC

&&

GRIFFITH