Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE HAD SVR WX ALL AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE THIS SHORT. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE AL/GA STATE LINE WEST OF CARROLLTON
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TO NORTHEAST. SPC
HAS PUT MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF SEVERE WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
18Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH HELICITY VALUES
OF 536 M2/S2 AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES VALUES OF NEAR 800 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -5 TO -6 TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED AND CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ATLANTA METRO AREA IS
UNDER THE GUN RIGHT NOW.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT ENDING THE
SVR WX THREAT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXTREME
CIRCUMSTANCES TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TUES AND MS VALLEY WED...HOWEVER GFS KEEPS SYSTEM MUCH MORE
INTENSE THAN ECMWF. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA ON WED SO
HAVE KEPT THIS GOING. INITIAL PROGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...LETS HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  70  40  67  43 /  30   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         42  67  42  68  44 /  20   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  64  33 /  30   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  37  68  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        51  74  45  73  48 /  20   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     46  66  40  66  42 /  20   0   0   0  10
MACON           45  73  41  71  41 /  30   0   0   0  10
ROME            46  68  40  69  43 /  20   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  44  67  38  68  41 /  20   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         49  73  40  70  43 /  40   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1219 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161230-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1219 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVED FROM EASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING...AND
WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AT MID DAY. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. .

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE BEST PLACE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR WAS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...THERE WAS STRONG WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LIFTED
INDEX AND CAPE VALUES FAVORED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
410 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             CUMMING                 34.21N 84.14W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   PUBLIC

0240 PM     HAIL             ROME                    34.26N 85.19W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       FLOYD              GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT A LOCATION NEAR OLD CALHOUN ROAD.

0243 PM     HAIL             CUMMING                 34.21N 84.14W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT A LOCATION OFF OF LAKE DRIVE.

0405 PM     HAIL             3 NW LULA               34.42N 83.70W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       HALL               GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MGRIESIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
413 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             GRANT PARK              33.74N 84.37W
03/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       FULTON             GA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MGRIESIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

GAZ001>003-152100-
415 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN DADE...WALKER AND
CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS DADE...
WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE TRENTON...NEW ENGLAND...CLOUDLAND STATE
PARK...HINKLES...HIGH POINT...WILDWOOD...CHICKAMAUGA...CHATTANOOGA
VALLEY...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...ROCK SPRING...FORT OGLETHORPE...
FAIRVIEW...ROSSVILLE...LAKEVIEW AND BOYNTON.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
417 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

GAZ038-152045-
417 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS IN
OGLETHORPE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ARNOLDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
OGLETHORPE COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE ARNOLDSVILLE...STEPHENS...CRAWFORD...LEXINGTON...
SANDY CROSS AND VESTA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             ATLANTA                 33.76N 84.42W
03/15/2008  E2.75 INCH       FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL REPORTED ACROSS DOWNTOWN ATLANTA.

&&

MGRIESIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
426 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     TORNADO          MAYSVILLE               34.25N 83.56W
03/15/2008                   JACKSON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY FIRE AND RESCUE EMPLOYEE.

0230 PM     HAIL             HOLLY SPRINGS           34.17N 84.50W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           GA   PUBLIC

0300 PM     HAIL             GAINESVILLE             34.29N 83.83W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       HALL               GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT A LOCATION 1 MILE NW OF ATLANTA HWY AND
            FRAISER ROAD.

&&

MGRIESIN