Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Kansas City, MO

December 27, 20086 counties in Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 27, 2008, 5:30 AM CST for 6 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 27, 2008, 5:30 AM CST (11:30 UTC)
Expired: Dec 27, 2008, 6:00 AM CST
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 27, 4:30 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 449 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -62 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 866 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 360 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 456 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.0
Supercell composite: 4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 27, 4:56 AM CST, 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 4:56 AM CST, 34 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
456 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...

VERY BUSY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR OTTUMWA
IOWA...THROUGH CHILLICOTHE TO KANSAS CITY TO JUST EAST OF EMPORIA
KANSAS. BOWING LINE SEGMENT EVIDENT ON RADAR JUST WEST OF KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST. ACTIVE SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT PROCEEDS THE
COLD FRONT. KEAX AND LATHROP PROFILER DEPICTING A VERY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...THUS EXPECTED DOMINATE MODE OF
CONVECTION TO BE MORE LINEAR.

SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH SOUTHERN WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THE DOMINATE FEATURE. SLOWER
MOVMENT OF SOUTHERN WAVE IS CAUSING FRONT TO SLOW A LITTLE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE THREAT OF BOTH
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN BEARING THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS
DEPICTING MODEST FGEN FORCING AT THE 800-750...750-700 AND 700-650
LAYERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONES...BUT KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLILITY OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS. QUICK PERUSAL OF
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE THE PRECIPTATION TAPERS OFF. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REACHED EARLY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH METRO AREA LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. AFTER TODAY...USED
BLEND OF SREF AND MOS GUIDE AS BASIS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREFRONTAL SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BUT MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BTWN 07Z-10Z AS THE CD FRONT MOVES APPROACHES. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS...CONTINUING
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 13Z. IN ADDITION...THE COLD MASS
UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS. MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE TERMINALS
AFT 13Z...REMOVING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP BELOW FREEZING AFT 13Z...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION HEAVIER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL NOT
INPUT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME...AS LOW LEVEL DRYING UPSTREAM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO INHIBIT FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STG NW WINDS.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUGGESTS THAT KSTJ MAY HAVE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET IN THE AFTN. IT IS BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT IN THE KSTJ TERMINAL.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ025-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ060.

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 26, 12:59 PM CST, 16 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271900-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1259 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT...AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS HAS ALREADY
MOVED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PROVIDING THE
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A KANSAS CITY
TO KIRKSVILLE LINE. WHILE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN AREAS FROM PLEASANTON...TO CLINTON...SEDALIA...AND
BOONVILLE...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...IF STRONG STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA CYGNE KANSAS TO MOBERLY MISSOURI. THIS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO MAY
INDUCE FLOODING OF AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING...ANY RAIN...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO AND AREA OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA CYGNE KANSAS TO
BOONVILLE MISSOURI. REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE
ALSO REQUESTED.

21

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 27, 5:02 AM CST, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 AM     HAIL             LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
12/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Dec 27, 5:08 AM CST, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEES SUMMIT             38.92N 94.38W
12/27/2008  M63 MPH          JACKSON            MO   ASOS

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Dec 27, 5:13 AM CST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
12/27/2008                   JACKSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES AND LARGE TREES DOWN SCATTERED THROUGH OUT
            KANSAS CITY MO

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Dec 27, 5:17 AM CST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
517 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     TSTM WND GST     OVERLAND PARK           38.91N 94.68W
12/27/2008  M61 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   ASOS

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Dec 27, 5:21 AM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
521 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANDVIEW               38.88N 94.52W
12/27/2008                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN THROUGH OUT THE CITY. ROOF
            DAMAGE TO AN APARTMENT COMPLEX.

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Dec 27, 5:29 AM CST, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N GRANDVIEW           38.91N 94.52W
12/27/2008                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSTATE 470 AND BLUE RIDGE
            BOULEVARD

&&

MDUX

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 26, 10:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Linn, Livingston	46 min
Dec 26, 10:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	33 min
Dec 27, 1:17 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and 2 more	6 hr
Dec 27, 4:36 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	24 min
Dec 27, 4:50 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	40 min
Dec 27, 4:58 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	32 min
Dec 27, 5:13 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Clay, Jackson, Ray	47 min
Dec 27, 5:36 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass	39 min
Dec 27, 5:36 AM CST	Freezing Rain Advisory	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 10 more	6 hr
Dec 27, 5:50 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Daviess, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Mercer and 2 more	40 min
Dec 27, 6:11 AM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	44 hr
Dec 27, 6:11 AM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Saline	7 days
Dec 27, 7:16 AM CST	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and 2 more	9 hr
Dec 27, 8:09 AM CST	Winter Storm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 5 more	3 hr
Dec 27, 9:40 AM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Henry, Johnson	36 hr
Dec 27, 9:58 AM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Macon	35 hr
Dec 27, 10:44 AM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Howard	20 hr
Dec 27, 10:44 AM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry	46 hr
Dec 27, 1:34 PM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Livingston	63 hr
Dec 27, 1:42 PM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Linn, Livingston	5 days
Dec 27, 2:13 PM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Macon, Putnam, Schuyler	6 hr
Dec 27, 2:48 PM CST	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll	25 hr
Dec 27, 4:10 PM CST	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Cooper, Daviess and 16 more	47 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.