River Flood Warning 322, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/456 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008/
VERY BUSY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
NEAR OTTUMWA IOWA...THROUGH CHILLICOTHE TO KANSAS CITY TO JUST EAST
OF EMPORIA KANSAS. BOWING LINE SEGMENT EVIDENT ON RADAR JUST WEST OF
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ACTIVE SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT
PROCEEDS THE COLD FRONT. KEAX AND LATHROP PROFILER DEPICTING A VERY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...THUS EXPECTED DOMINATE MODE OF
CONVECTION TO BE MORE LINEAR.

SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH SOUTHERN WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THE DOMINATE FEATURE. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN WAVE IS CAUSING FRONT TO SLOW A LITTLE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE THREAT OF BOTH
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN BEARING THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS
DEPICTING MODEST FGEN FORCING AT THE 800-750...750-700 AND 700-650
LAYERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONES...BUT KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS. QUICK PERUSAL OF
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REACHED EARLY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH METRO AREA LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. AFTER TODAY...USED
BLEND OF SREF AND MOS GUIDE AS BASIS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS.  WILL BE GETTING A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN THEN SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER COOLING TAKING PLACE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN
SNOW. LATEST NAM WOULD SUGGEST CHANGE OVER MAY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE 850 MB FRONT MOVES PAST. WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CHANGE OVER IN THE TAFS GIVEN ALREADY
SEEING H85 NORTHWEST WINDS ON TDWR AT MCI.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ025-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ060.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
635 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS...THROUGH PLEASANT HILL AND
HIGGINSVILLE MISSOURI...TO LA PLATA MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED.

DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA NORTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.  THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET MIXING WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS WINTRY MIX.

IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEAVENWORTH KANSAS...THROUGH
PLATTE CITY...TO GRANT CITY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SLEET WILL MIX WITH THE FREEZING RAIN.
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL RANGE FROM A LIGHT
GLAZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA UP
TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
END...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. SPOTTERS
ALSO ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
702 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N SWEET SPRINGS       39.00N 93.42W
12/27/2008                   SALINE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD 127...NORTH OF I-70 NEAR DAVIS CREEK.

&&

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
704 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

MOZ038-039-044>046-054-271330-
COOPER-HENRY-JOHNSON-LAFAYETTE-PETTIS-SALINE-
704 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN JOHNSON...HENRY...PETTIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...SOUTHERN SALINE AND WESTERN COOPER COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 AM CST...

AT 700 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
WARRENSBURG TO WARRENSBURG TO LEETON TO 6 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON TO
MONTROSE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CONCORDIA...DEEPWATER AND CALHOUN BY 710 AM CST.
  WINDSOR AND LA MONTE BY 715 AM CST.
  GREEN RIDGE...HOUSTONIA...SWEET SPRINGS AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF
  BLACKBURN BY 720 AM CST.
  SMITHTON...SEDALIA AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF MARSHALL BY 730 AM CST.

THE TOWNS OF LA DUE...FAYETTEVILLE...POST OAK...BROWNINGTON...EMMA...
COAL...HUGHESVILLE...TIGHTWAD...BRANDON AND SEDALIA MEMORIAL AIRPORT
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
734 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

MOZ032-039-040-045-046-271400-
CHARITON-COOPER-HOWARD-PETTIS-SALINE-
734 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PETTIS...SALINE...SOUTHERN
CHARITON...WESTERN COOPER AND WESTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM
CST...

AT 730 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MALTA BEND TO 8
MILES SOUTH OF MARSHALL TO 6 MILES EAST OF HOUSTONIA TO GREEN
RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SEDALIA BY 740 AM CST.
  SLATER BY 745 AM CST.
  SMITHTON BY 750 AM CST.
  GLASGOW...PILOT GROVE AND OTTERVILLE BY 755 AM CST.
  NEW FRANKLIN...BOONVILLE AND BUNCETON BY 800 AM CST.

THE TOWNS OF HUGHESVILLE...SEDALIA MEMORIAL AIRPORT...NELSON...
BLACKWATER...CLIFTON CITY...ARROW ROCK...GILLIAM...LAMINE AND
FRANKLIN ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
759 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N LEES SUMMIT         38.97N 94.38W
12/27/2008  M63.00 MPH       JACKSON            MO   ASOS

            CORRECTED LAT AND LON OF REPORT

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
902 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S CONCORDIA           38.91N 93.56W
12/27/2008                   JOHNSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 23 CLOSED AT BLACKWATER FROM FLOODING.

&&

ABAILEY

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