Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 110226
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
926 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

MOC177-110236-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
RAY MO-
926 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN RAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 923 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3993 9324 3961 9372 3961 9375 3971 9385
      3985 9393 3998 9411 4059 9375 4059 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 226DEG 48KT 4018 9378 4002 9369
          3969 9368

$$

MOC025-061-079-081-115-117-129-171-211-110300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
CALDWELL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-
HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
926 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
PUTNAM...MERCER...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SULLIVAN...
GRUNDY...NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN LINN...LIVINGSTON AND
NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1000
PM CDT...

AT 923 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GILMAN CITY TO JAMESPORT TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRAYMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHILLICOTHE BY 935 PM CDT.
  SPICKARD BY 940 PM CDT.
  PRINCETON BY 945 PM CDT.
  GALT BY 950 PM CDT.
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MERCER BY 955 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF TINDALL...MODENA...MILL GROVE...LAREDO...CHULA...
OSGOOD...NEWTOWN...HUMPHREYS...HARRIS AND LUCERNE ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
DEKALB AND DAVIESS COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3993 9324 3961 9372 3961 9375 3971 9385
      3985 9393 3998 9411 4059 9375 4059 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 226DEG 48KT 4018 9378 4002 9369
          3969 9368

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 110240
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
940 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

MOC025-110250-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
CALDWELL MO-
940 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

AT 937 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4059 9325 3993 9324 3973 9363 3979 9375
      4004 9384 4012 9401 4059 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 225DEG 47KT 4031 9362 4015 9353
          3983 9353

$$

MOC061-079-081-115-117-129-171-211-110300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-HARRISON MO-
MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
940 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
PUTNAM...MERCER...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SULLIVAN...
GRUNDY...NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN LINN AND NORTHERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 937 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SPICKARD TO TRENTON TO CHILLICOTHE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PRINCETON BY 945 PM CDT.
  GALT BY 950 PM CDT.
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MERCER BY 955 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF LAREDO...CHULA...OSGOOD...HARRIS...NEWTOWN...
HUMPHREYS...LUCERNE AND POWERSVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
DEKALB AND DAVIESS COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4059 9325 3993 9324 3973 9363 3979 9375
      4004 9384 4012 9401 4059 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 225DEG 47KT 4031 9362 4015 9353
          3983 9353

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 110251
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
951 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

MOC061-115-117-110301-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-DAVIESS MO-
951 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHWESTERN LINN AND NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

AT 947 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4059 9325 4008 9325 4003 9351 4006 9368
      4017 9375 4031 9391 4037 9386 4038 9387
      4044 9383 4059 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 224DEG 50KT 4045 9345 4026 9339
          4010 9337

$$

MOC079-081-129-171-211-110300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
951 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
PUTNAM...MERCER...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SULLIVAN AND GRUNDY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PRINCETON TO 7 MILES NORTH OF GALT TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
GALT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN HARRISON...GRUNDY...MERCER...WESTERN PUTNAM AND WESTERN
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF LUCERNE AND POWERSVILLE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
DEKALB AND DAVIESS COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4059 9325 4008 9325 4003 9351 4006 9368
      4017 9375 4031 9391 4037 9386 4038 9387
      4044 9383 4059 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 224DEG 50KT 4045 9345 4026 9339
          4010 9337

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 110257
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
957 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

MOC079-081-129-171-211-110307-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080411T0300Z/
GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
957 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN PUTNAM...MERCER...
EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SULLIVAN AND GRUNDY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 1000 PM CDT...

AT 952 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 4059 9325 4008 9325 4003 9351 4006 9368
      4017 9375 4031 9391 4037 9386 4038 9387
      4044 9383 4059 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 224DEG 50KT 4051 9337 4032 9331
          4016 9329

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...UPDATED FOR FLOOD WATCH AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

WILL GO AHEAD AND DISCONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.  EVENING
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.
WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WHICH WILL BE HANDLED
WITH THE FLOOD WARNINGS.  ALSO WILL BE CONTINUING AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/334 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/
FOR DISCUSSION ON ONGOING SVR WX THREAT AND SHORT TERM
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE ATTACHED PREVIOUS/MESOSCALE DISCUSSION BELOW
THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FOR TONIGHT...UPR LVL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS/NE. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED FROM RISING
RIVERS. HOWEVER...THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS
EVENING ONCE RAINFALL DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...SOME CONCERNS EXIST
FOR THE NECESSITY OF A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. DRY MID-LVL AIR IS RAPIDLY WRAPPING INTO THE STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTH WEST. INDICATIONS OF THIS HAPPENING ARE NOW EVIDENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS DEW POINTS HAVE
CRASHED INTO THE LOW 40S AND UPR 30S. ATTM IT APPEARS STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADV CRITERIA.

CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FEBRUARY THAN EARLY APRIL AS
RATHER COLD...OVERCAST...AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.  IN FACT...IT DOESNT
APPEAR TO THAT SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL MONDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.  SPEAKING OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STORM SYSTEM WHICH
HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  AS VERTICALLY STACKED UPR LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LARGE TROWAL WILL
WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
TO EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GIVEN TRACK OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND CURRENTLY PROGGED OMEGA FIELDS.  SOUNDINGS POINT TO SNOW BEING
THE PRIMARY WX TYPE OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH
PERHAPS A DUSTING TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW
COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FEEL A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SFC WARM LAYER REMAINS 1500-2000 FT THICK. AS
SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPR LOW SATURDAY...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS H850 AIR
SOME -6C TO -8C WILL WORK SOUTHWARD.  COMBINE THIS WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIME WHATSOEVER.  NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS USELESS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...AS THEY REMAIN
HEAVILY BIASED TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY ATTM.  FOR NOW WILL SEE MAX TS
SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FRI/SAT ONLY IN THE UPR 30S
TO LOWER 40S. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSES OVERHEAD.
DESPITE DECENT MIXING TO H85 TOMORROW AFTN...WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
BETWEEN 20-40 KNOTS THEREFORE FEEL WND ADV WILL NOT BE NEEDED ATTM.
WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE THESE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....WITH WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE 20S
IN THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OTHER CONCERN IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES.  DESPITE
AMPLE CLOUD COVER FEEL LOWS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE NW
CORNER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST AND SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.  DEPENDANT ON THE AMOUNT OF
GREEN UP...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THESE TIME PERIODS. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH IT IS GOING TO BE
COLD...WE ARE STILL IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TIME FOR OUR LAST
FROST/FREEZE IN THIS AREA.

A LONG AWAITED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY...AS LONG WAVE RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TEMPERING OUR WARM UP AND KEEPING
READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  HOWEVER...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME.  AS MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS WELL. WITH DECENT
MIXING EXPECTED EACH DAY...TRUE SPRING LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGH IN THE
MIDDLE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...DROPPING A WEAK COOL
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY
WEATHER AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

DUX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE THREAT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FOR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN BE
REALIZED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY BOUNDARY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE OCCLUSION WAS NOTED BTWN SLN AND HUT IN CNTRL
KS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLA. A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING NORTH AND HAS MADE IT
TO ABOUT THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN WEST CENTRAL MO.

THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NE INTO XTRM NERN KS WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT TO ABOUT
STJ BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT STG SSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SRN AND
ERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COINCIDENT WITH THE STG H3 JET AND
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SURGING NE TWD SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NERN OKLAHOMA.

THE FIRST CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS FOR EXTREME
NERN KS AND NWRN MO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE NOTED TO THE SW
OF EMP KS WITH A STEADY NE PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING LINE. BY LATE
THIS AFTN...THE STG BULK SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SRN
AND ERN CWA WITH WEAKER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT IN NWRN MO. LOCALLY BACK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
EXISTS. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THE FCST SOUNDINGS WILL
BE UNCAPPED WITH ONLY UPPER 50S TO BREAK THE WEAK INVERSION. SBCAPES
AROUND 400-500 J/KG IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER HELICITIES MAY ENOUGH FOR LOW TOP SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE
THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 3PM AND 8 PM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS 25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM STJ TO BETHANY.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN IS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE
PRESENT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN EXTREME
SERN KS AND NERN OK...IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID LVL
DRY SLOT. SBCAPES WITHIN THIS REGION WERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH
THE STG SHEAR LIKELY INHIBITING STG DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY IN
NERN OKLAHOMA WILL SURGE NE WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY QUITE WEAK. IN ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST ONLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY WITHIN THE REGION OF THE STG H3 JET. SBCAPES ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE FOR THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN WITH LOCALIZED VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IF ANY HEATING
CAN BE REALIZED. CLOUD COVER IN ADV OF THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER
THICK...THEREFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS DOUBTFUL. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE RUC AND NAM MODELS TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR THE MUCH OF THE SRN
CWA BY 00Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SLOW DRYING WITH SFC WINDS
VEERING TO THE SSW. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE FOR THIS REGION
IS LOW...BUT IF A STORM CAN MAINTAIN A STRONG UPDRAFT WITH SUCH
STRONG SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW WINDOW
FOR SUPERCELLS FOR THE EXTREME SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN OR THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEDALIA TO MOBERLY. AT
THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

AFT 00Z...THE SUPERCELL THREAT IN NWRN MO WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE WRN CWA AFT 03Z...BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING
ALONG NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...THE STORMS ARE NOTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ONE MORE BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PAST THE TAF
SITES BY 03Z. SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS EARLIER CONVECTION AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. MAY STILL HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL. EXPECTING THE
LOWEST CIGS TO ROTATE INTO THE KSTJ AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CURRENT THINKING THAT CIGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW IN THE KANSAS
CITY AREA...SO WILL GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH JUST AND MVFR DECK
AT THOSE SITES.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO AROUND INTERSTATE 70. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WAS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
TO A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
GENERALLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY. THIS
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO END
BY 10 PM.

FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
SEVERITY DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. AT THE
PRESENT TIME...THE SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL HEATING
DOES DEVELOP...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SEDALIA TO MOBERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT
APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT WITH NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BY FRIDAY MORNING....COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME...AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE HALF INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR REPORTS OF FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
820 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND GST     KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
04/10/2008  M58 MPH          JACKSON            MO   ASOS

            PEAK GUST MEASURED BY KMKC ASOS

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
848 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TORNADO          ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
04/10/2008                   BUCHANAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE RELAYED A REPORT OF A TORNADO GOING
            THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT JOSEPH.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
854 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAMERON                 39.74N 94.24W
04/10/2008  E60 MPH          DEKALB             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
858 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W GOWER               39.61N 94.63W
04/10/2008  E60 MPH          BUCHANAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE RELAYED REPORT OF 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
908 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKSDALE              39.81N 94.55W
04/10/2008  E60 MPH          DEKALB             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER POLES DOWNED AND BARN BLOWN DOWN

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
909 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW GOWER             39.62N 94.60W
04/10/2008  E50 MPH          CLINTON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRD