Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 110211
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
910 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

MOC061-063-075-081-129-227-110230-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-080411T0230Z/
WORTH MO-DEKALB MO-DAVIESS MO-GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-
910 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
MERCER...HARRISON...GENTRY...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...NORTHEASTERN
DEKALB AND EASTERN WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ALBANY TO BETHANY TO 8 MILES EAST OF PATTONSBURG...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GILMAN CITY BY 915 PM CDT.
  RIDGEWAY BY 920 PM CDT.
  EAGLEVILLE BY 925 PM CDT.
  CAINSVILLE BY 930 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF MARTINSVILLE...ALLENDALE...HATFIELD...MOUNT MORIAH...
BLYTHEDALE AND MODENA ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
DEKALB COUNTY WITH DAMAGE TO HOUSES AND POWER POLES. THIS IS AN 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4032 9363 4025 9370 4025 9377 4020 9376
      3979 9420 3979 9422 4000 9434 4008 9463
      4016 9462 4057 9424 4058 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 218DEG 55KT 4034 9433 4026 9406
          4006 9396

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 110221
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

MOC063-110231-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-080411T0230Z/
DEKALB MO-
921 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 918 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4058 9374 4032 9363 4026 9369 4025 9377
      4020 9376 3988 9412 4007 9422 4013 9435
      4022 9451 4057 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 218DEG 55KT 4047 9419 4039 9392
          4019 9382

$$

MOC061-075-081-129-227-110230-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-080411T0230Z/
WORTH MO-DAVIESS MO-GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-
921 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
MERCER...HARRISON...EASTERN GENTRY...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS AND EASTERN
WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 918 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF GRANT CITY TO RIDGEWAY TO GILMAN
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAINSVILLE BY 930 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF MODENA IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
DEKALB AND DAVIESS COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4058 9374 4032 9363 4026 9369 4025 9377
      4020 9376 3988 9412 4007 9422 4013 9435
      4022 9451 4057 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 218DEG 55KT 4047 9419 4039 9392
          4019 9382

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...UPDATED FOR FLOOD WATCH AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

WILL GO AHEAD AND DISCONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.  EVENING
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.
WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WHICH WILL BE HANDLED
WITH THE FLOOD WARNINGS.  ALSO WILL BE CONTINUING AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/334 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/
FOR DISCUSSION ON ONGOING SVR WX THREAT AND SHORT TERM
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE ATTACHED PREVIOUS/MESOSCALE DISCUSSION BELOW
THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FOR TONIGHT...UPR LVL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS/NE. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED FROM RISING
RIVERS. HOWEVER...THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS
EVENING ONCE RAINFALL DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...SOME CONCERNS EXIST
FOR THE NECESSITY OF A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. DRY MID-LVL AIR IS RAPIDLY WRAPPING INTO THE STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTH WEST. INDICATIONS OF THIS HAPPENING ARE NOW EVIDENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS DEW POINTS HAVE
CRASHED INTO THE LOW 40S AND UPR 30S. ATTM IT APPEARS STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADV CRITERIA.

CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FEBRUARY THAN EARLY APRIL AS
RATHER COLD...OVERCAST...AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.  IN FACT...IT DOESNT
APPEAR TO THAT SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL MONDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.  SPEAKING OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STORM SYSTEM WHICH
HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  AS VERTICALLY STACKED UPR LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LARGE TROWAL WILL
WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
TO EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GIVEN TRACK OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND CURRENTLY PROGGED OMEGA FIELDS.  SOUNDINGS POINT TO SNOW BEING
THE PRIMARY WX TYPE OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH
PERHAPS A DUSTING TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW
COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FEEL A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SFC WARM LAYER REMAINS 1500-2000 FT THICK. AS
SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPR LOW SATURDAY...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS H850 AIR
SOME -6C TO -8C WILL WORK SOUTHWARD.  COMBINE THIS WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIME WHATSOEVER.  NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS USELESS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...AS THEY REMAIN
HEAVILY BIASED TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY ATTM.  FOR NOW WILL SEE MAX TS
SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FRI/SAT ONLY IN THE UPR 30S
TO LOWER 40S. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSES OVERHEAD.
DESPITE DECENT MIXING TO H85 TOMORROW AFTN...WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
BETWEEN 20-40 KNOTS THEREFORE FEEL WND ADV WILL NOT BE NEEDED ATTM.
WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE THESE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....WITH WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE 20S
IN THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OTHER CONCERN IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES.  DESPITE
AMPLE CLOUD COVER FEEL LOWS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE NW
CORNER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST AND SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.  DEPENDANT ON THE AMOUNT OF
GREEN UP...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THESE TIME PERIODS. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH IT IS GOING TO BE
COLD...WE ARE STILL IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TIME FOR OUR LAST
FROST/FREEZE IN THIS AREA.

A LONG AWAITED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY...AS LONG WAVE RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TEMPERING OUR WARM UP AND KEEPING
READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  HOWEVER...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME.  AS MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS WELL. WITH DECENT
MIXING EXPECTED EACH DAY...TRUE SPRING LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGH IN THE
MIDDLE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...DROPPING A WEAK COOL
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY
WEATHER AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

DUX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE THREAT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FOR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN BE
REALIZED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY BOUNDARY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE OCCLUSION WAS NOTED BTWN SLN AND HUT IN CNTRL
KS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLA. A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING NORTH AND HAS MADE IT
TO ABOUT THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN WEST CENTRAL MO.

THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NE INTO XTRM NERN KS WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT TO ABOUT
STJ BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT STG SSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SRN AND
ERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COINCIDENT WITH THE STG H3 JET AND
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SURGING NE TWD SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NERN OKLAHOMA.

THE FIRST CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS FOR EXTREME
NERN KS AND NWRN MO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE NOTED TO THE SW
OF EMP KS WITH A STEADY NE PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING LINE. BY LATE
THIS AFTN...THE STG BULK SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SRN
AND ERN CWA WITH WEAKER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT IN NWRN MO. LOCALLY BACK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
EXISTS. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THE FCST SOUNDINGS WILL
BE UNCAPPED WITH ONLY UPPER 50S TO BREAK THE WEAK INVERSION. SBCAPES
AROUND 400-500 J/KG IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER HELICITIES MAY ENOUGH FOR LOW TOP SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE
THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 3PM AND 8 PM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS 25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM STJ TO BETHANY.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN IS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE
PRESENT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN EXTREME
SERN KS AND NERN OK...IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID LVL
DRY SLOT. SBCAPES WITHIN THIS REGION WERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH
THE STG SHEAR LIKELY INHIBITING STG DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY IN
NERN OKLAHOMA WILL SURGE NE WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY QUITE WEAK. IN ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST ONLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY WITHIN THE REGION OF THE STG H3 JET. SBCAPES ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE FOR THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN WITH LOCALIZED VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IF ANY HEATING
CAN BE REALIZED. CLOUD COVER IN ADV OF THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER
THICK...THEREFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS DOUBTFUL. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE RUC AND NAM MODELS TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR THE MUCH OF THE SRN
CWA BY 00Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SLOW DRYING WITH SFC WINDS
VEERING TO THE SSW. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE FOR THIS REGION
IS LOW...BUT IF A STORM CAN MAINTAIN A STRONG UPDRAFT WITH SUCH
STRONG SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW WINDOW
FOR SUPERCELLS FOR THE EXTREME SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN OR THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEDALIA TO MOBERLY. AT
THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

AFT 00Z...THE SUPERCELL THREAT IN NWRN MO WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE WRN CWA AFT 03Z...BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING
ALONG NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...THE STORMS ARE NOTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ONE MORE BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PAST THE TAF
SITES BY 03Z. SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS EARLIER CONVECTION AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. MAY STILL HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL. EXPECTING THE
LOWEST CIGS TO ROTATE INTO THE KSTJ AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CURRENT THINKING THAT CIGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW IN THE KANSAS
CITY AREA...SO WILL GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH JUST AND MVFR DECK
AT THOSE SITES.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO AROUND INTERSTATE 70. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WAS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
TO A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
GENERALLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY. THIS
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO END
BY 10 PM.

FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
SEVERITY DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. AT THE
PRESENT TIME...THE SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL HEATING
DOES DEVELOP...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SEDALIA TO MOBERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT
APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT WITH NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BY FRIDAY MORNING....COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME...AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE HALF INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR REPORTS OF FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
750 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S TONGANOXIE          39.10N 95.08W
04/10/2008  E65 MPH          LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 60 TO 65 MPH WINDS.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
807 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LEAVENWORTH         39.32N 94.96W
04/10/2008  M56.00 MPH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
815 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
04/10/2008  E70 MPH          LEAVENWORTH        KS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            REPORTED BY AIRLINE PILOT AT FORT LEAVENWORTH LIBRARY.

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
820 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND GST     KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
04/10/2008  M58 MPH          JACKSON            MO   ASOS

            PEAK GUST MEASURED BY KMKC ASOS

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
848 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TORNADO          ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
04/10/2008                   BUCHANAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE RELAYED A REPORT OF A TORNADO GOING
            THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT JOSEPH.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
854 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAMERON                 39.74N 94.24W
04/10/2008  E60 MPH          DEKALB             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN