Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW/MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

ONGOING PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO SEEMS TO BE CLOSELY TIED
TO SW/NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT 20-25KT H85 FLOW
FEEDING THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WHERE
STRONGER HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY ON THE EDGE OF
CLOUD SHIELD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE TIME
BEING. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS ATTM AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
WITH TIME.

CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PWS INCREASE TO
2 TO 2.5 IN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. ATTM...EXPECTING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS NOCTURNAL
LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI AND THEN EASTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED 2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. BIG
QUESTION IS TO THE EXACT SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH PLACES THIS AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM...FEEL THIS SWATH COULD EASILY BE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE INUNDATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES IN RECENT EVENTS...ANY DECENT
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG...SOUTH AND EAST OF A KANSAS CITY
TO BETHANY LINE WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF POTENTIAL AND LOWER FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HELD ON TO CHC POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...KEPT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS
TOMORROW BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROVIDING
A WELL NEEDED DRY SPELL OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FIRST REAL SUSTAINED PERIOD OF HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY...MID-LVL H500 RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THIS WILL IN RETURN INDUCE RATHER
STRONG LOW-LVL WAA...BRINGING H850 READINGS SOME 24C TO AS HIGH AS
30C INTO THE CWA.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE UPR 90S IN THE NW TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SE.  SATURDAY APPEARS TO THE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS THERMAL RIDGE FOLDS OVER AND WARM AIR PLUNGES DEEPER
INTO THE REGION. WHILE I HAVE PLAYED TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH SOIL MOISTURE VALUES...PRETTY
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 100 DEGREE READINGS IN THE AREA. SOME QUESTIONS
ARISE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE TO AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MID-LVL MOISTURE WORKING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE AND AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE HOMOGENEOUS.  NEVERTHELESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 90S.  THIS BEING SAID...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING TO POSSIBLY SEVERAL DAYS
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...AS MID-LVL RIDGE IS FLATTENED AND THE
REGION BECOMES MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ATTM...WITH
PREFERENCES REMAINING WITH THE 00Z/29 ECMWF AND 06Z/29 GFS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

ONGOING PRECIP AFFECTING BOTH KMCI AND KSTJ ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF PARTIAL REMNANTS OF TD DOLLY. EXPECTING ON
AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER
INTRODUCED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAIN PRECIP BAND TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AS MORE PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS AFFECTS THE AREA.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ005-
     MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ021-
     MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-
     MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-
     MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-
     KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTEN THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO
EXIST MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO UNIONVILLE LINE WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OTHER THAN HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICIES MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 100 TO 105 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PLEASE RELAY ANY
RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS OF FLOODING.

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOZ017-025-292000-
ADAIR-MACON-
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BRASHEAR TO 9 MILES EAST OF LA PLATA TO 9 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MACON AND
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 15 MINUTES.

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOZ038-044-300015-
JOHNSON-LAFAYETTE-
651 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN JOHNSON AND SOUTHERN
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ODESSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
7 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN JOHNSON AND
SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF FAYETTEVILLE.

NRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
707 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOZ038-044-300030-
JOHNSON-LAFAYETTE-
707 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MAYVIEW...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
HIGGINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGGINSVILLE...6 MILES WEST OF CONCORDIA AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF
  CORDER BY 730 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF FAYETTEVILLE AND AULLVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

NRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             3 SW CONCORDIA          38.96N 93.61W
07/29/2008  E0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC 2.5 MILES SW OF
            CONCORDIA.

&&

MRD