River Flood Warning 249, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CIRCULATION CENTER ASSCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HAS SHIFTED INTO
SERN KS WITH AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATEST GFS/RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AS THE NAM QPF HAS BEEN MUCH TOO FAR NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

A RATHER SHARP H7/H5 DEFORMATION ZONE HAS LIMITED THE NWD EXTENT OF
THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIELD...FM KC AREA ENE TO NR MACON. THIS IS WELL
HANDLE BY THE GFS WITH THE GFS TO SHIFT THIS AXIS SLOWLY SE THROUGH
THE DAY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE H8/H7 THETAE RIDGE WAS POSITION NR THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...2-2.5
PRECIPITABLE WATER...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ HAS VEERED.
HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING
BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS DIURNAL DECREASE IN THE
AFTN.

SINCE RADAR TRENDS VERIFY THE LATEST GFS...HAVE REMOVED THE XTRM NRN
EXTENT OF THE FFA.

OTHERWISE...HAVE CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED
THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY.

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL
INFLUENCED SYSTEMS. BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...IS SETTING UP GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM
EMPORIA TO KC AREA. THIS BAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE THEREFORE HAD
TO CONTINUE THUNDER FOR THE KC SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE TAPERED
BACK TO SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

NRR

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ017-MOZ021-MOZ022-
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-
     MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ103-
     KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTEN THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO
EXIST MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO UNIONVILLE LINE WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OTHER THAN HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICIES MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 100 TO 105 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PLEASE RELAY ANY
RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS OF FLOODING.

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOZ038-044-045-300500-
JOHNSON-LAFAYETTE-PETTIS-
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN
PETTIS AND SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1122 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF WARRENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT
26 MPH.

WIND GUST OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF CONCORDIA BY 1150 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF FAYETTEVILLE IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

NRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW DOVER              39.17N 93.72W
07/29/2008                   LAFAYETTE          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTS WATER OVER HWY 213 BETWEEN HWY 20
            AND 24...AS WELL AS OVER HWY 224 WEST OF LEXINGTON.

&&

MRD

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