Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 301224
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
719 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008


MOC033-041-115-117-121-175-177-301500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-080730T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RAY MO-RANDOLPH MO-CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-
MACON MO-
719 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MACON...SOUTHERN LINN...
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN CHARITON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND
NORTHERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...


AT 715 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT FLASH 
FLOODING HAD CLOSED SEVERAL ROADS ACROSS RAY...CARROLL...AND 
CHARITON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS 
RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. 

STILL MORE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THIS MORNING. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE 
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT 
WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...MARCELINE... 
ATLANTA...BEVIER...BOSWORTH...BUCKLIN...CALLAO...HALE AND WOODS 
HEIGHTS.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 4002 9233 3963 9231 3936 9357 3932 9422
      3953 9389 3953 9377 3961 9377

$$

CUTTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

/343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29/
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW/MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

ONGOING PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO SEEMS TO BE CLOSELY TIED
TO SW/NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT 20-25KT H85 FLOW
FEEDING THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WHERE
STRONGER HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY ON THE EDGE OF
CLOUD SHIELD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE TIME
BEING. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS ATTM AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
WITH TIME.

CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PWS INCREASE TO
2 TO 2.5 IN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. ATTM...EXPECTING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS NOCTURNAL
LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI AND THEN EASTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED 2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. BIG
QUESTION IS TO THE EXACT SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH PLACES THIS AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM...FEEL THIS SWATH COULD EASILY BE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE INUNDATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES IN RECENT EVENTS...ANY DECENT
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG...SOUTH AND EAST OF A KANSAS CITY
TO BETHANY LINE WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF POTENTIAL AND LOWER FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HELD ON TO CHC POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...KEPT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS
TOMORROW BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROVIDING
A WELL NEEDED DRY SPELL OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FIRST REAL SUSTAINED PERIOD OF HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY...MID-LVL H500 RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THIS WILL IN RETURN INDUCE RATHER
STRONG LOW-LVL WAA...BRINGING H850 READINGS SOME 24C TO AS HIGH AS
30C INTO THE CWA.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE UPR 90S IN THE NW TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SE.  SATURDAY APPEARS TO THE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS THERMAL RIDGE FOLDS OVER AND WARM AIR PLUNGES DEEPER
INTO THE REGION. WHILE I HAVE PLAYED TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH SOIL MOISTURE VALUES...PRETTY
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 100 DEGREE READINGS IN THE AREA. SOME QUESTIONS
ARISE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE TO AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MID-LVL MOISTURE WORKING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE AND AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE HOMOGENEOUS.  NEVERTHELESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 90S.  THIS BEING
SAID...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING TO POSSIBLY
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...AS MID-LVL RIDGE IS FLATTENED AND THE
REGION BECOMES MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ATTM...WITH
PREFERENCES REMAINING WITH THE 00Z/29 ECMWF AND 06Z/29 GFS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL
INFLUENCED SYSTEMS. BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...IS SETTING UP GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM
EMPORIA TO KC AREA. THIS BAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE THEREFORE HAD
TO CONTINUE THUNDER FOR THE KC SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE TAPERED
BACK TO SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

NRR

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
MOZ005-
MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ021-
MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-
MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-
MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ057-     KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTEN THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO
EXIST MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO UNIONVILLE LINE WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OTHER THAN HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICIES MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 100 TO 105 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PLEASE RELAY ANY
RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS OF FLOODING.

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOZ044-045-300245-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 906 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEETON...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
WARRENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE AND KNOB NOSTER BY 945 PM CDT.

NRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOZ038-044-045-300500-
JOHNSON-LAFAYETTE-PETTIS-
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN
PETTIS AND SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1122 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF WARRENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT
26 MPH.

WIND GUST OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF CONCORDIA BY 1150 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF FAYETTEVILLE IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

NRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW DOVER              39.17N 93.72W
07/29/2008                   LAFAYETTE          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTS WATER OVER HWY 213 BETWEEN HWY 20
            AND 24...AS WELL AS OVER HWY 224 WEST OF LEXINGTON.

&&

MRD