Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 260513
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

MOC171-197-211-260530-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-080626T0530Z/
SULLIVAN MO-PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCHUYLER...
PUTNAM AND NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1209 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LANCASTER TO 12 MILES WEST OF LANCASTER TO 5 MILES WEST OF UNIONVILLE
TO 8 MILES EAST OF MERCER...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LANCASTER BY 1220 AM CDT.
  QUEEN CITY AND DOWNING BY 1230 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF LIVONIA...LEMONS...GLENWOOD...NEWTOWN...WORTHINGTON AND
POLLOCK ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 4041 9236 4034 9269 4034 9285 4030 9286
      4020 9335 4037 9337 4057 9338 4059 9336
      4060 9319 4061 9237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 329DEG 25KT 4062 9244 4051 9274
          4045 9308 4049 9336

$$

MJ

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 260529
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

MOC171-197-211-260539-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-080626T0530Z/
SULLIVAN MO-PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1229 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SCHUYLER...PUTNAM AND NORTHERN
SULLIVAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1224 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 4041 9236 4034 9269 4034 9285 4030 9286
      4020 9335 4037 9337 4057 9338 4059 9336
      4060 9319 4061 9237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 329DEG 25KT 4052 9237 4041 9267
          4035 9300 4040 9328

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF MCV THAT
PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LATE AFTERNOON READINGS NEAR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
CUMULUS.  WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ENHANCED BY
EVAPORTRANSPIRATION...COMBINING TO PRODUCE HEALTHY SB AND MUCAPES...
BUT SO FAR ENERGY REMAINS UNTAPPED. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC
FORCING EVIDENT IN EITHER SHORT TERM MODELS...THOUGH BOTH NAM
AND GFS DEVELOP MESOSCALE INDUCED WAVES WITH CONVECTION THAT IS
SUPPOSED TO ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. HESITANT
TO FOLLOW EITHER SOLUTION GIVEN LACK OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND MAY STILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. EVEN AS CONVECTION ROLLS OUT OF
NORTHERN PLAINS...VEERING H8 FLOW WILL LIMIT PROPAGATION INTO
CWA...THUS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF CWA.

H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER. FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AGAIN...BUT NOTHING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ASIDE FROM DIURNAL
HEATING...THUS KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

A MORE POTENT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH NOTHING
TO DISPLACE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA...AND WITH
DECENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE...STAGE IS SET FOR HEAVY RAIN-BEARING
STORMS.

SF

MEDIUM RANGE (SAT-WED)

MAIN CONCERNS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS UPR-LVL PATTERN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE.  FOR
THE WEEKEND...STRONG MID-LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER TREND
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS ATLANTIC BLOCKING RIDGE HOLDS TROUGH IN PLACE
SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED.  THIS BEING SAID...RATHER SHARP NW
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH COOLER AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BEING USHERED SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.  CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A DAILY
DOSE OF STRATO-CU. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATION FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS
WILL LIKELY ALSO HAVE AND AFFECT ON BOTH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES.
THIS BEING SAID...HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MODEST MIXING ALLOWING READINGS TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S.

A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERSISTS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...AS
EVOLUTION OF UPR-RIDGE REMAINS IN DOUBT.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH RIDGE
WILL SLIDE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INDUCE WAA BY TUESDAY...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP BY
WEDNESDAY.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY KEEPING AN EYE ON CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. PESSIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
WITH LACK OF ANY CONVECTION TO THE WEST. NEVERTHELESS...CANNOT RULE
OUT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS EMBEDDED IMPULSE
EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR CHANNEL HEADS THIS DIRECTION. KEPT THINGS DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
103 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...HOWEVER
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

A GREATER THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
ANY REPORTS OF OBSERVED FLOODING IS APPRECIATED.

SF