River Flood Warning 200, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/424 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/
FOCUS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A PREVAILING ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW A SURFACE FRONT
IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM EAST WYOMING
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. TREND FOR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS HAS BEEN
FOR SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR
THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEXES THAT THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS FEEDING ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF THE NOCTURNAL JET. CURRENTLY A COUPLE OF COMPLEXES ARE WORKING
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE PLAINS...ONE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...AND A SECOND WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF MISSOURI.

FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN
EAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO CHEW ITS WAY SOUTH EATING UP THE 1.25
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PREVAILING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. H8 WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IN
MISSOURI...AND IS HELPING REGENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AN AXIS FROM DES MOINES SOUTH THROUGH KIRKSVILLE AND MACON. LOOKS
LIKE ADVECTION OVER THE COLD POOL...LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT
COMPLEX...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM REGENERATION. HAVE LEFT SOME
CHANCE POPS IN ALONG THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR THE
MORNINGS HOURS AS A RESULT.

FOR TODAY...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT. ALREADY SAW 90+ DEGREE
TEMPS YESTERDAY...AND CAN NOT SEE ANY REASON WE WONT BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY. MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON SOME KIND OF
COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN THE POOLS PLACEMENT IN EASTERN MISSOURI I HAVE
OPTED TO GO ALONG WITH MAV NUMBERS INSTEAD WHICH PUTS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER. THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BLOSSOM ACROSS THE FRONT WHICH WILL STILL BE IN
IOWA...HELPED ALONG BY THE LEFT OVER CIRCULATION FROM THE COMPLEX IN
THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. ONLY NEW WINKLE MAY BE THAT THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FARTHER NORTH THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS
ACTIVITY MIGHT KICK OF SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
STUFF TO THE NORTH MIGHT MOVE SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT LEFT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS WHEN ANY MCV FROM THE
AFTERNOON IOWA ACTIVITY WOULD BE HEADING SOUTH RIDING THE
INTERSECTION OF THE NOCTURNAL JET AND EXPANDING COLD POOL. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNINGS
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...ONLY SHIFTED A LITTLE LATER AND MAYBE A BIT
FARTHER EAST. HENCE CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HAVE
TRAVERSED EAST AND BEGUN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG WESTERLY JET THAT WILL BE DIGGING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
WAVE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REORIENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND MOVE INTO MISSOURI DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. 00Z/26 NAM-WRF RUN WAS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONTS PROGRESS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT BACKED OFF TO
AGREE WITH THE 00Z/26 RUN OF THE GFS BY THE 06Z/26 OF NAM-WRF RUN.
SPREAD THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM LEFT OVER ACTIVITY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT OF ANY AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MIGHT KICK OFF IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. LIKELY POPS KEYING ON THE FRONTS POSITION OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR GIVEN HIGH CAPE VALUES AND
NOMINAL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WITH THE FLOW RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING INTO A MORE MERIDIONAL
DIRECTION I HAVE KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE FOR THE
WEEKEND.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINAL SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT OR ABOVE 12 KTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF AN INVERSION FORMS IT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 AM     HAIL             UNIONVILLE              40.48N 93.00W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PC

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