Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/421 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008/
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS DOMINATE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. EARLY
MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE
IS AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MO VIA SURFACE
PRESSURE/ALTIMETER ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
CONGESTED CU FORMED AS EXPECTED ONCE WE HIT THE MID 80S BUT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL RETARDED BY PESKY CAP. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INITIATE BY 23Z WITH FAVORED AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
CU FROM EAST CENTRAL KS TO BETWEEN IRK AND MOBERLY. ONCE ACTIVITY
STARTS IT WILL LIKELY GO FAST AND BECOME SEVERE. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS EARLIER THOUGHT
SINCE SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ENTIRELY AS 0-6KM SHEAR STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS AND BRIEF SPIN UPS POSSIBLE WITH STORM INTERACTION WITH
PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHIFTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MO/IA
BORDER BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE BULK OF THE CWA UNDER A
STRONG CAP WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F. THIS CAP WILL
EFFECTIVELY INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS.

MJ

LONG RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO OUR AREA...POSSIBLY
BRINGING WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.  LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL
SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR 80 F THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE ENERGY.  THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS THE MAIN ISSUE...AS IT WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION ACTUALLY BEGINS.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT ONCE THAT DISSIPATES
IT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DECIDED TO RAISE THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA.

ON MONDAY THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

MJS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUP OF THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TWO
HOURS DURING THE PEAK TIME OF INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT CONVECTION.
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MAY MISS KMCI...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR KMKC. FOR
KSTJ...STORMS MAY MISS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...SO
WILL NOT PUT ANY TEMPO GROUP IN THAT TAF. FOR THE LATE NIGHT...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS WE MAY CAP OFF AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IN THE H85 TO H75 LAYER SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.  THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL
NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER IN THROUGH 00Z.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO WASH OUT FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO MOBERLY.
IF THIS BOUNDARY FALLS APART ENTIRELY IT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
TO FOCUS THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A STRONG
CAP OR LAYER OF PRONOUNCED WARMING AT MID LEVELS IS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO EAST CENTRAL KS.

NONETHELESS...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACK
EAST WITH THE COMPLEX REACHING THE MISSOURI RIVER BY EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY PLUS DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND AN
APPROACHING 700MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF AN MCS CAN FORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE...AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM 9 PM TO 3 AM. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE
NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
810 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FAIRWAY                 39.03N 94.63W
06/03/2008                   JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JOHNSON COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED ROAD BEING BLOCKED BY
            LAW ENFORCMENT DUE TO FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            CANTERBURY ROAD AND STATE PARK ROAD IN FAIRWAY, KANSAS

&&

MSINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
822 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             2 N TINA                39.57N 93.44W
06/03/2008  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SFORTIN