Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/421 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008/
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS DOMINATE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. EARLY
MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE
IS AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MO VIA SURFACE
PRESSURE/ALTIMETER ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
CONGESTED CU FORMED AS EXPECTED ONCE WE HIT THE MID 80S BUT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL RETARDED BY PESKY CAP. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INITIATE BY 23Z WITH FAVORED AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
CU FROM EAST CENTRAL KS TO BETWEEN IRK AND MOBERLY. ONCE ACTIVITY
STARTS IT WILL LIKELY GO FAST AND BECOME SEVERE. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS EARLIER THOUGHT
SINCE SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ENTIRELY AS 0-6KM SHEAR STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS AND BRIEF SPIN UPS POSSIBLE WITH STORM INTERACTION WITH
PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHIFTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MO/IA
BORDER BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE BULK OF THE CWA UNDER A
STRONG CAP WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F. THIS CAP WILL
EFFECTIVELY INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS.

MJ

LONG RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO OUR AREA...POSSIBLY
BRINGING WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.  LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL
SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR 80 F THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE ENERGY.  THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS THE MAIN ISSUE...AS IT WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION ACTUALLY BEGINS.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT ONCE THAT DISSIPATES
IT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DECIDED TO RAISE THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA.

ON MONDAY THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

MJS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUP OF THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TWO
HOURS DURING THE PEAK TIME OF INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT CONVECTION.
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MAY MISS KMCI...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR KMKC. FOR
KSTJ...STORMS MAY MISS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...SO
WILL NOT PUT ANY TEMPO GROUP IN THAT TAF. FOR THE LATE NIGHT...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS WE MAY CAP OFF AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IN THE H85 TO H75 LAYER SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.  THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL
NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER IN THROUGH 00Z.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO WASH OUT FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO MOBERLY.
IF THIS BOUNDARY FALLS APART ENTIRELY IT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
TO FOCUS THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A STRONG
CAP OR LAYER OF PRONOUNCED WARMING AT MID LEVELS IS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO EAST CENTRAL KS.

NONETHELESS...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACK
EAST WITH THE COMPLEX REACHING THE MISSOURI RIVER BY EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY PLUS DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND AN
APPROACHING 700MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF AN MCS CAN FORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE...AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM 9 PM TO 3 AM. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE
NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
703 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ105-040030-
JOHNSON-
703 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GARDNER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRING HILL BY 710 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CLARE AND JOHNSON CO ARPT ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
717 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
06/03/2008  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION
            OF 16TH AND WALNUT IN KANSAS CITY, MO

&&

MSINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
721 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

MOZ025-040045-
MACON-
721 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN MACON COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 717 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN MACON COUNTY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
733 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
06/03/2008  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT INTERSTATE
            435 AND HOLMES ROAD.

&&

MSINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
733 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ105-MOZ037-040100-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-
733 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL JOHNSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 731 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLATHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRANDVIEW BY 800 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF JOHNSON CO ARPT AND STANLEY ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>