River Flood Warning 123, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.UPDATE

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

DURING THE COURSE OF THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES...STORMS ARE BECOMING
LOW CENTROID...THUS FEEL SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS INCREASING. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCES DEPICTING
FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. OUTFLOW AND
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF SUB-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
METROPOLITAN AREA...ALLOWING CLUSTER TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD...THUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NOT BE TOO LONG-LIVED.

AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER IN THE EVENING...NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HAIL PRODUCTION UNTIL 50 DB CORE EXCEEDS 45K...WITH 50DB TO 50K
BEING USED AS THE THRESHOLD FOR SEVERE HAIL.

SF

.DISCUSSION...
/421 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008/
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS DOMINATE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. EARLY
MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE
IS AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MO VIA SURFACE
PRESSURE/ALTIMETER ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
CONGESTED CU FORMED AS EXPECTED ONCE WE HIT THE MID 80S BUT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL RETARDED BY PESKY CAP. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INITIATE BY 23Z WITH FAVORED AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
CU FROM EAST CENTRAL KS TO BETWEEN IRK AND MOBERLY. ONCE ACTIVITY
STARTS IT WILL LIKELY GO FAST AND BECOME SEVERE. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS EARLIER THOUGHT
SINCE SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ENTIRELY AS 0-6KM SHEAR STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS AND BRIEF SPIN UPS POSSIBLE WITH STORM INTERACTION WITH
PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHIFTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MO/IA
BORDER BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE BULK OF THE CWA UNDER A
STRONG CAP WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F. THIS CAP WILL
EFFECTIVELY INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS.

MJ

LONG RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO OUR AREA...POSSIBLY
BRINGING WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.  LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL
SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR 80 F THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE ENERGY.  THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS THE MAIN ISSUE...AS IT WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION ACTUALLY BEGINS.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT ONCE THAT DISSIPATES
IT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DECIDED TO RAISE THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA.

ON MONDAY THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

MJS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUP OF THUNDER FOR THE FIRST TWO
HOURS DURING THE PEAK TIME OF INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT CONVECTION.
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MAY MISS KMCI...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR KMKC. FOR
KSTJ...STORMS MAY MISS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...SO
WILL NOT PUT ANY TEMPO GROUP IN THAT TAF. FOR THE LATE NIGHT...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS WE MAY CAP OFF AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IN THE H85 TO H75 LAYER SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.  THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL
NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER IN THROUGH 00Z.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO WASH OUT FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO MOBERLY.
IF THIS BOUNDARY FALLS APART ENTIRELY IT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
TO FOCUS THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A STRONG
CAP OR LAYER OF PRONOUNCED WARMING AT MID LEVELS IS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO EAST CENTRAL KS.

NONETHELESS...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACK
EAST WITH THE COMPLEX REACHING THE MISSOURI RIVER BY EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY PLUS DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND AN
APPROACHING 700MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF AN MCS CAN FORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE...AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM 9 PM TO 3 AM. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE
NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
934 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ057-040300-
MIAMI-
934 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MIAMI COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT...

AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WELLSVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
EDGERTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PAOLA BY 955 PM CDT.
  9 MILES WEST OF LOUISBURG BY 1000 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HILLSDALE...WAGSTAFF AND CHILES ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ057-060-MOZ043-044-053-040315-
BATES-CASS-JOHNSON-LINN-MIAMI-
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CASS...NORTHEASTERN LINN...NORTHERN
BATES...SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

AT 942 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RAYMORE TO FREEMAN
TO DREXEL TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAOLA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DREXEL BY 955 PM CDT.
  PLEASANT HILL AND EAST LYNNE BY 1000 PM CDT.
  GARDEN CITY BY 1010 PM CDT.
  ARCHIE...KINGSVILLE AND 6 MILES NORTH OF ADRIAN BY 1015 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF NEW LANCASTER...MERWIN...AMSTERDAM...STRASBURG...GUNN
CITY AND LA TOUR ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-040415-
CASS-JOHNSON-MIAMI-
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI...NORTHWESTERN
CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1032 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MIAMI...
NORTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
TOWNS OF SPRING HILL...BUCYRUS AND STILLWELL.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     HAIL             SPRING HILL             38.75N 94.83W
06/03/2008  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1040 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             SPRING HILL             38.75N 94.83W
06/03/2008  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BELTON                  38.82N 94.53W
06/03/2008                   CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER. TWO VEHICLES
            STALLED IN HIGH WATER. APPROXIMATELY 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN
            IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO HOURS.

&&

SFORTIN