River Flood Warning 291, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL THETAE WAS SLOWLY WANING THIS
MORNING AS PROFILERS INDICATE THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING.
REGARDLESS...THE WEAKENING THETAE ADVECTION WAS BEING SUPPLEMENT BY
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.30 INCHES. THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER NWRN MO TO ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND H8 CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY FADE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WAS THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTN. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE ANY STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF
THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE. ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT
ON SPEED...THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN THE TRACK THE REMNANTS FROM NERN TX
TO SERN MO. THIS WILL PLACE THE XTRM SERN CWA ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE. WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE XTRM SERN CWA FOR TNGT AND SUNDAY BUT CANCEL
THE WATCH EARLIER FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF
KMCI AND KMKC. THERE IS A BAND OF RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST KS TO
NORTHEAST MO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND OF RAIN MAY REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS KMKC BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME SO WILL LEAVE TERMINAL DRY. THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE OUTER RAIN
BANDS MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF KANSAS CITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO WILL THROW VCSH IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...NO VFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ANTICIPATE SCATTERING OUT THE STRATUS DECK
THIS EVENING. BY TOMORROW MORNING MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS WELL AS
SPREADING NORTH FROM REMNANTS OF IKE.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ028-MOZ029-
     MOZ030-MOZ037.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ017-MOZ025-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ060.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
102 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO KIRKSVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
RAIN...BUT THE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY
KANSAS TO MOBERLY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY KANSAS TO BOONVILLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
154 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     FLOOD            2 NE RICHMOND           39.30N 93.95W
09/13/2008                   RAY                MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL ROADS AND FIELDS UNDER WATER ALONG THE CROOKED
            RIVER

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
213 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     FLOOD            POTTER                  39.43N 95.15W
09/13/2008                   ATCHISON           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER CAUSED 230TH STREET TO BE CLOSED.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 AM     FLOOD            S NEW BOSTON            39.95N 92.88W
09/13/2008                   LINN               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER CAUSED 129TH HIGHWAY TO BE CLOSED.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
216 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     FLOOD            UNIONVILLE              40.48N 93.00W
09/13/2008                   PUTNAM             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NINE ROADS ARE CLOSED IN THE UNIONVILLE AREA DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
218 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     FLOOD            LANCASTER               40.52N 92.53W
09/13/2008                   SCHUYLER           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS REMAINED CLOSED IN SCHUYLER COUNTY, DUE TO
            HIGH WATER FROM THE HEAVY RAINS. THESE ROADS INCLUDE
            A,V,E,N,FF,H, AND V HIGHWAYS.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
220 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     FLOOD            CHULA                   39.92N 93.48W
09/13/2008                   LIVINGSTON         MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AROUND
            CHULA.

&&

GAMIS