River Flood Warning 278, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL THETAE WAS SLOWLY WANING THIS
MORNING AS PROFILERS INDICATE THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING.
REGARDLESS...THE WEAKENING THETAE ADVECTION WAS BEING SUPPLEMENT BY
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.30 INCHES. THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER NWRN MO TO ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND H8 CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY FADE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WAS THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTN. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE ANY STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF
THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE. ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT
ON SPEED...THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN THE TRACK THE REMNANTS FROM NERN TX
TO SERN MO. THIS WILL PLACE THE XTRM SERN CWA ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE. WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE XTRM SERN CWA FOR TNGT AND SUNDAY BUT CANCEL
THE WATCH EARLIER FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE LAST BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KC
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11 AND 13Z. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO
TEMPORARILY IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. FOR KSTJ...ONLY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A LAYER OF
STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL SPREAD EAST BY
LATE MORNING WITH CIGS BTWN 1000-2000 FEET THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME CHC THAT THE CIGS MAY BE JUST BELOW 1KFT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING. IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHETHER ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW THICK THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-
     MOZ020.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ008-MOZ016-MOZ021-MOZ022-
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ037.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ017-MOZ025-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ102.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ060.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
557 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH MISSOURI. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN...BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY KANSAS TO
ODESSA TO KIRKSVILLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY KANSAS TO
KIRKSVILLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGE TO
RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER OR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LIBERTY                 39.24N 94.42W
09/13/2008  M5.50 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

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