Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 131630
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

KSC005-091-103-121-209-MOC021-025-037-047-049-063-095-165-177-131645-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080913T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-DEKALB MO-
CASS MO-JACKSON MO-CLAY MO-RAY MO-PLATTE MO-CLINTON MO-CALDWELL MO-
BUCHANAN MO-
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MIAMI AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE...LEAVENWORTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND WESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND BUCHANAN...CLINTON
AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND
PLATTE...WESTERN RAY...CLAY...JACKSON AND NORTHERN CASS COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE 
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT 
TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3964 9402 3928 9401 3913 9409 3914 9412
      3881 9412 3844 9506 3897 9506 3896 9517
      3941 9517 3943 9533 3982 9473 3982 9463
      3989 9462 3999 9447

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL THETAE WAS SLOWLY WANING THIS
MORNING AS PROFILERS INDICATE THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING.
REGARDLESS...THE WEAKENING THETAE ADVECTION WAS BEING SUPPLEMENT BY
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.30 INCHES. THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER NWRN MO TO ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND H8 CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY FADE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WAS THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTN. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE ANY STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF
THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE. ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT
ON SPEED...THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN THE TRACK THE REMNANTS FROM NERN TX
TO SERN MO. THIS WILL PLACE THE XTRM SERN CWA ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE. WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE XTRM SERN CWA FOR TNGT AND SUNDAY BUT CANCEL
THE WATCH EARLIER FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE LAST BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KC
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11 AND 13Z. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO
TEMPORARILY IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. FOR KSTJ...ONLY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A LAYER OF
STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL SPREAD EAST BY
LATE MORNING WITH CIGS BTWN 1000-2000 FEET THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME CHC THAT THE CIGS MAY BE JUST BELOW 1KFT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-
     MOZ020.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ008-MOZ016-MOZ021-MOZ022-
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ037.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ017-MOZ025-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ102.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ060.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH RIVER FLOODING
LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
THIS TRACK MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO URGED TO RELAY ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LIBERTY                 39.24N 94.42W
09/13/2008  M5.50 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

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