River Flood Warning 265, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF QPF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305-310K
SFC TRIGGERED A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN ACR NWRN MO OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION IS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AS PER PROFILERS.

A LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN CNTRL/ERN KS INTO SWRN MO. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS IN AN
AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
SRN KS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING FOCUSED AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE
H7-H5 THETAE RIDGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES.

NAM/GFS RATHER SIMILAR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH
SHEARS ENE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY. AS PER MODELS...UPPER
TROUGH TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN NWRN MO THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN XTRM NWRN MO TNGT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA AS PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN
APPARENT IN NWRN OK.

NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE H8-H7 THETAE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CNTRL
MO TODAY WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE RIDGE.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NWRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AS THE SFC WAVE HEADS TOWARD IA TONIGHT...MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NWRN MO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT NE
INTO IA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP INTO MO
SATURDAY MORNING.

AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY AS TNGT AS THE FORCING
IS NOT AS STRONG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY DECREASE. REGARDLESS...THE
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE DAY LIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL. DESPITE THE
EMPHASIS NOW BEING PLACE ON NWRN MO FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN...WILL
STILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SERN GRIDS DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE ON THE HEAVIEST QPF PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACR THE SRN GRIDS
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM AND UKMET ON THE HANDLING OF THE
FUTURE REMNANTS OF IKE. GFS HAS BUCKED THE LATEST TRENDS BY BEING
MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER NW ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SERN CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE KC METRO
EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME IFR
DUE TO SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...LOWER CIGS ABOUT
50 MILES SOUTH OF THE METRO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH CIGS RISING TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
FEET. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN DROPS CIGS AND VSBYS ONCE AGAIN AFT 06Z.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-
     MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-
     MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-
     MOZ054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH RIVER FLOODING
LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
THIS TRACK MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO URGED TO RELAY ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DEROCHE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW FONTANA            38.42N 94.85W
09/12/2008                   MIAMI              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATERS ON 391 ST AT HEDGE LN.

&&

ACH