Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 121101
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008



MOC053-159-121500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080912T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PETTIS MO-COOPER MO-
601 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOPER AND SOUTHEASTERN
PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 556 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATED UPWARD OF TWO TO AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAD 
FALLEN IN AREAS FROM OTTERVILLE...TO BUNCETON...AND PRAIRIE HOME. 
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...DITCHES...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE 
LIKELY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...BUNCETON...OTTERVILLE...PILOT GROVE AND SMITHTON.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3851 9344 3882 9303 3898 9272 3897 9256
      3891 9249 3867 9263 3867 9280 3870 9306
      3854 9308

$$

DUX

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 121358
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
858 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

MOC053-159-121500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080912T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PETTIS MO-COOPER MO-
858 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOPER AND SOUTHEASTERN
PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 852 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS 
ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LARGELY END IN THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER A FEW 
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE STILL BEEN NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR. RUNOFF 
FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS CAUSED FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. 
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...BUNCETON...OTTERVILLE...PILOT GROVE AND SMITHTON.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3851 9344 3882 9303 3898 9272 3897 9256
      3891 9249 3867 9263 3867 9280 3870 9306
      3854 9308

$$

21

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 121506
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1006 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

MOC053-159-121520-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-080912T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PETTIS MO-COOPER MO-
1006 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR COOPER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PETTIS COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...HOWEVER 
EXCESS WATER STILL REMAINS ACROSS LOW LYING AND DRAINAGE AREAS. 
THEREFORE...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA 
PREVIOUSLY UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3851 9344 3882 9303 3898 9272 3897 9256
      3891 9249 3867 9263 3867 9280 3870 9306
      3854 9308

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF QPF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305-310K
SFC TRIGGERED A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN ACR NWRN MO OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION IS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AS PER PROFILERS.

A LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN CNTRL/ERN KS INTO SWRN MO. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS IN AN
AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
SRN KS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING FOCUSED AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE
H7-H5 THETAE RIDGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES.

NAM/GFS RATHER SIMILAR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH
SHEARS ENE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY. AS PER MODELS...UPPER
TROUGH TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN NWRN MO THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN XTRM NWRN MO TNGT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA AS PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN
APPARENT IN NWRN OK.

NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE H8-H7 THETAE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CNTRL
MO TODAY WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE RIDGE.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NWRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AS THE SFC WAVE HEADS TOWARD IA TONIGHT...MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NWRN MO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT NE
INTO IA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP INTO MO
SATURDAY MORNING.

AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY AS TNGT AS THE FORCING
IS NOT AS STRONG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY DECREASE. REGARDLESS...THE
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE DAY LIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL. DESPITE THE
EMPHASIS NOW BEING PLACE ON NWRN MO FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN...WILL
STILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SERN GRIDS DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE ON THE HEAVIEST QPF PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACR THE SRN GRIDS
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM AND UKMET ON THE HANDLING OF THE
FUTURE REMNANTS OF IKE. GFS HAS BUCKED THE LATEST TRENDS BY BEING
MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER NW ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SERN CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-
     MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-
     MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-
     MOZ054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO A TROPICAL AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE CONTAINING
A MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT THESE SHOWERS AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. SINCE THE GROUND
REMAINS WET FROM THE RECENT SOAKING RAINS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL BE PRONE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ON FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE
LINE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY.

THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME AND ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE DEVELOPING SITUATION FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS AND WEATHER WATCHERS ARE URGED TO RELAY ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DEROCHE