Tornado Warning 51, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 122200
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
500 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSC091-121-122230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-080912T2230Z/
JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-
500 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MIAMI AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS 
STORM CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ROTATION...AND WAS LOCATED 6 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRING HILL BY 510 PM CDT.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF
NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3868 9495 3884 9484 3884 9461 3869 9484
      3869 9485 3865 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 213DEG 21KT 3869 9489

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 122208
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSC091-121-122230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-080912T2230Z/
JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-
508 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MIAMI AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING HILL AND CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG 
ROTATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MIAMI AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF
NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3866 9493 3868 9493 3884 9481 3884 9461
      3875 9473 3876 9475 3872 9481 3870 9482
      3869 9485 3866 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 218DEG 22KT 3874 9483

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 122215
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
515 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSC121-122224-
/O.CAN.KEAX.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-080912T2230Z/
MIAMI KS-
514 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 511 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST
JOHNSON COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING 
FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3874 9489 3884 9481 3884 9461 3875 9473
      3875 9476 3873 9479 3874 9481 3873 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 218DEG 22KT 3877 9480

$$

KSC091-122230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-080912T2230Z/
JOHNSON KS-
514 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 2 MILES 
NORTH OF SPRING HILL.  THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON 
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTHWEST OF STILLWELL.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF
NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3874 9489 3884 9481 3884 9461 3875 9473
      3875 9476 3873 9479 3874 9481 3873 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 218DEG 22KT 3877 9480

$$

BOOKBINDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...ITS STILL RAINING. PRECIP SHIELD NOW GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
FOCUSING MORE ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. EXPECTING THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WHERE STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN MORE FOCUSED.

IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A
WARM FRONT HAS SHARPENED ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
STRETCHED FROM NEAR EMPORIA EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF CLINTON. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...ABUNDANT HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH TEMPS NOW INTO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. SCATTERED CU HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND ANY REMAINING INHIBITION IS QUICKLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH WITH TIME
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWEST FEW
KM HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING HELICITY VALUES...IE 0-1KM SRH OF
150-200 M2/S2. AS SEEN YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF OBTAINING MINI-SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS LCL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LLVL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SFC VORTICITY GENERATION...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LLVL HELICITY VALUES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING
AROUND 14KFT AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND -10C...NOT EXPECTED
HAIL TO BE AN ISSUE. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE
LOST OF STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES.

EXPECTING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO NARROW THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TD LOWELL WILL IN
ESSENCE BECOME PINCHED OFF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS AND HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ACTIVITY BECOMING DEFINED ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE STRETCHED INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TOMORROW SHIFTING THE
PRECIP CHCS WITH IT. RAIN CHCS WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE ONGOING PRECIP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HURRICANE IKE AS IT MAKES THE TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC BRINGS THE REMNANTS INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE
CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE PATH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIELD DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. PAINTED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IKE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...

AFTER A WET WEEKEND...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
CONSENSUS OF NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS IS TO BUILD H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA. NAEFS
SHOWING A LITTLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT BY MAINTAINING WEAKNESS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...LIKELY THE REMNANTS OF IKE...WHICH COULD
LIMIT THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER.  NONETHELESS..DUE TO
COPIOUS RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH
EVAPORTRANSPORATION WILL LIMIT WARM-UP. GIVEN LIMITED MIXING WHILE
SURFACE HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE AREA...DECIDED TO TREND ONLY
SLIGHTLY TOWARD UPPER END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.  ON FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL ALLOW
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS...THUS TRENDED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER.

24

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIP BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS NEAR KMCI AND KMKC. KSTJ REMAINS IN THE MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE TAF SITES.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-
     MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-
     MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-
     MOZ054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH RIVER FLOODING
LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
THIS TRACK MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO URGED TO RELAY ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW FONTANA            38.42N 94.85W
09/12/2008                   MIAMI              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATERS ON 391 ST AT HEDGE LN.

&&

ACH