Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1248  AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...
TSRA CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT TO THE N THE CWA WITH NEXT ROUND
COMING ACRS SD AND NEBRASKA ATTM LEADING TO CONCERN FOR TEMPS TDA.
A BIT GUNSHY AFT THE COOL POOL HELD TEMPS DOWN YDA.  FEEL ENUF
DEBRIS WILL AFFECT THE N TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.  WHILE ON
TEMPS...ADJ TEMPS DNWD FOR FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN AND DONT FEEL
IT WILL GET OUT OF THE 70S IN THE N WITH ONLY THE FAR S AND SE WRMG
UP TO THE UPR 80S.  PCPN IS MORE PROBLEMATIC TDA.  COMPLICATED STTN
WITH THE SERIES OF S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE WRLY FLOW.  WENT WITH
DVLPMT LATE IN THE DAY OVR THE FAR N.  FEEL IT WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS TO GET THE PCPN TO MOVE SWD.  PUT IN MNTN OF SVR AND LCLY R+
IN MY LKLY AREA OF THE NW THIS EVE.  HISTORY OF THIS AMS...GIVEN THE
DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR...IS FOR ANY SVR WX TO OCCUR BFR 05Z FOR
THE MOST PART.  WILL PLAY IT THAT WAY AGN TNGT. SVR POT FOR FRI
LOOKING LESS LKLY THAN TDA WITH STTN GOING MORE TWD HVR RAFL INSTEAD
OF SVR.  SWODY2 COVERS DISCUSSION OF THIS WELL.  LTL CHNG ELSW IN
THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT THE MON TUE
TIMEFRAME TDA AS IT APPEARS SYS MOVING A BIT QUICKER.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HEADLINES THIS PKG AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH
PCPN WE WILL GET.  MDLS KEEP MOST OF IT IN NEBRASKA...BUT HAVE
QUESTIONS WITH THAT.  FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE STATE WILL BE IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...BUT OVER A 60 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN THERE HASNT BEEN ALL THAT MUCH RAIN IN A WHILE...THAT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE HANDLED EASILY EVEN IF WE DO GET SPOT 3-4 INCH AMTS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT ROUNDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KFOD AND KMCW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL TAKE
CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR AWHILE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. AFTER
06Z...WEATHER SHOULD CALM DOWN IN THE NORTH...AND FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL IA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE STORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...MS JUL 08
SHORT TERM...REV
AVIATION...KJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>059-070-071-181645-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MINNESOTA BORDER...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WORK THEIR
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. BY THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD REACH
FROM WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE WATERLOO AREA...AND
POINTS NORTH. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH GENERAL RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND AN INCH...AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM AROUND 5 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-181645-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF
AND ON SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JUNGBLUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
226 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             SW MASON CITY           43.15N 93.20W
07/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       CERRO GORDO        IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MM 183 ON AVENUE OF THE SAINTS. FROM IOWA STATE PATROL.

0225 PM     HAIL             SW MASON CITY           43.15N 93.20W
07/17/2008  E1.00 INCH       CERRO GORDO        IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MM 183 AVENUE OF THE SAINTS. HAIL INCREASED TO QUARTER
            SIZED. FROM IOWA STATE PATROL

&&

KLP/BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
232 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HAIL             NNE MASON CITY          43.15N 93.20W
07/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       CERRO GORDO        IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AT KIMT

&&

KLP/BSS