Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 171819
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
117 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAC063-109-147-171830-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0401.000000T0000Z-080717T1830Z/
KOSSUTH IA-EMMET IA-PALO ALTO IA-
117 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR PALO ALTO...EASTERN EMMET AND KOSSUTH COUNTIES...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEDYARD TO BANCROFT TO
CURLEW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 48 MILES EAST OF SPIRIT LAKE
TO 48 MILES WEST OF MASON CITY TO 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER...
MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ALGONA AIRPORT BY 125 PM CDT...
  WEST BEND BY 130 PM CDT...

40 TO 50 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS SINCE 
1245 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4351 9397 4326 9398 4291 9445 4291 9487
      4292 9488 4292 9492 4311 9493 4328 9447
      4351 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 277DEG 33KT 4348 9409 4324 9409
          4294 9477

$$

PODRAZIK

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 171830
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
129 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAC063-109-147-171839-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0401.000000T0000Z-080717T1830Z/
KOSSUTH IA-EMMET IA-PALO ALTO IA-
129 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PALO ALTO...EASTERN EMMET AND
KOSSUTH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 130 PM CDT...

AT 125 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY 
MOVE EAST NEAR 40 MPH.  ADDITIONALLY...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY 
CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4351 9397 4326 9398 4291 9445 4291 9487
      4292 9488 4292 9492 4311 9493 4328 9447
      4351 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 277DEG 33KT 4347 9394 4323 9394
          4293 9462

$$

PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...
TSRA CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT TO THE N THE CWA WITH NEXT ROUND
COMING ACRS SD AND NEBRASKA ATTM LEADING TO CONCERN FOR TEMPS TDA.
A BIT GUNSHY AFT THE COOL POOL HELD TEMPS DOWN YDA.  FEEL ENUF
DEBRIS WILL AFFECT THE N TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.  WHILE ON
TEMPS...ADJ TEMPS DNWD FOR FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN AND DONT FEEL
IT WILL GET OUT OF THE 70S IN THE N WITH ONLY THE FAR S AND SE WRMG
UP TO THE UPR 80S.  PCPN IS MORE PROBLEMATIC TDA.  COMPLICATED STTN
WITH THE SERIES OF S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE WRLY FLOW.  WENT WITH
DVLPMT LATE IN THE DAY OVR THE FAR N.  FEEL IT WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS TO GET THE PCPN TO MOVE SWD.  PUT IN MNTN OF SVR AND LCLY R+
IN MY LKLY AREA OF THE NW THIS EVE.  HISTORY OF THIS AMS...GIVEN THE
DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR...IS FOR ANY SVR WX TO OCCUR BFR 05Z FOR
THE MOST PART.  WILL PLAY IT THAT WAY AGN TNGT. SVR POT FOR FRI
LOOKING LESS LKLY THAN TDA WITH STTN GOING MORE TWD HVR RAFL INSTEAD
OF SVR.  SWODY2 COVERS DISCUSSION OF THIS WELL.  LTL CHNG ELSW IN
THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT THE MON TUE
TIMEFRAME TDA AS IT APPEARS SYS MOVING A BIT QUICKER.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HEADLINES THIS PKG AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH
PCPN WE WILL GET.  MDLS KEEP MOST OF IT IN NEBRASKA...BUT HAVE
QUESTIONS WITH THAT.  FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE STATE WILL BE IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...BUT OVER A 60 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN THERE HASNT BEEN ALL THAT MUCH RAIN IN A WHILE...THAT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE HANDLED EASILY EVEN IF WE DO GET SPOT 3-4 INCH AMTS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AND SO FAR HAVE ONLY KMCW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VCTS. AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM ALONG AND NORTH OF A KFOD TO KMCW LINE.
OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH AND BY 12Z SHOULD
BE AFFECTING ALL SITES EXECPT KOTM. GENERAL VFR CIGS FOR MOST OF
TODAY WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS TNT NEAR STORMS. SOME VISBYS ISSUES
POSSIBLE EARLY THUR 06-12Z WITH INC BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL AND ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO
REMAIN SSW 12-18 BUT SFC GUSTS IN THUNDER COULD APPROACH 35KTS WITH
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT TNT. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...MS JUL 08
SHORT TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>059-070-071-181645-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MINNESOTA BORDER...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WORK THEIR
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. BY THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD REACH
FROM WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE WATERLOO AREA...AND
POINTS NORTH. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH GENERAL RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND AN INCH...AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM AROUND 5 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-181645-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF
AND ON SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JUNGBLUTH