Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 171747
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAC063-147-171815-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0400.000000T0000Z-080717T1815Z/
EMMET IA-PALO ALTO IA-
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PALO ALTO AND EMMET COUNTIES...

AT 1242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DOLLIVER TO 6 MILES WEST OF
RINGSTED TO RUTHVEN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES EAST OF
SPIRIT LAKE TO 25 MILES EAST OF SPIRIT LAKE TO 13 MILES EAST OF
SPENCER...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAETTINGER BY 1255 PM CDT...
  RINGSTEAD AND ARMSTRONG BY 100 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4350 9446 4328 9446 4310 9492 4350 9493
      4351 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 268DEG 29KT 4348 9447 4331 9459
          4313 9486

$$

PODRAZIK

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 171813
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
114 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAC063-147-171824-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0400.000000T0000Z-080717T1815Z/
EMMET IA-PALO ALTO IA-
114 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PALO ALTO AND
EMMET COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM CDT...

AT 112 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4350 9446 4328 9446 4310 9492 4350 9493
      4351 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 268DEG 29KT 4349 9416 4332 9428
          4314 9455

$$

PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...
TSRA CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT TO THE N THE CWA WITH NEXT ROUND
COMING ACRS SD AND NEBRASKA ATTM LEADING TO CONCERN FOR TEMPS TDA.
A BIT GUNSHY AFT THE COOL POOL HELD TEMPS DOWN YDA.  FEEL ENUF
DEBRIS WILL AFFECT THE N TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.  WHILE ON
TEMPS...ADJ TEMPS DNWD FOR FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN AND DONT FEEL
IT WILL GET OUT OF THE 70S IN THE N WITH ONLY THE FAR S AND SE WRMG
UP TO THE UPR 80S.  PCPN IS MORE PROBLEMATIC TDA.  COMPLICATED STTN
WITH THE SERIES OF S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE WRLY FLOW.  WENT WITH
DVLPMT LATE IN THE DAY OVR THE FAR N.  FEEL IT WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS TO GET THE PCPN TO MOVE SWD.  PUT IN MNTN OF SVR AND LCLY R+
IN MY LKLY AREA OF THE NW THIS EVE.  HISTORY OF THIS AMS...GIVEN THE
DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR...IS FOR ANY SVR WX TO OCCUR BFR 05Z FOR
THE MOST PART.  WILL PLAY IT THAT WAY AGN TNGT. SVR POT FOR FRI
LOOKING LESS LKLY THAN TDA WITH STTN GOING MORE TWD HVR RAFL INSTEAD
OF SVR.  SWODY2 COVERS DISCUSSION OF THIS WELL.  LTL CHNG ELSW IN
THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT THE MON TUE
TIMEFRAME TDA AS IT APPEARS SYS MOVING A BIT QUICKER.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HEADLINES THIS PKG AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH
PCPN WE WILL GET.  MDLS KEEP MOST OF IT IN NEBRASKA...BUT HAVE
QUESTIONS WITH THAT.  FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE STATE WILL BE IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...BUT OVER A 60 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN THERE HASNT BEEN ALL THAT MUCH RAIN IN A WHILE...THAT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE HANDLED EASILY EVEN IF WE DO GET SPOT 3-4 INCH AMTS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AND SO FAR HAVE ONLY KMCW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VCTS. AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM ALONG AND NORTH OF A KFOD TO KMCW LINE.
OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH AND BY 12Z SHOULD
BE AFFECTING ALL SITES EXECPT KOTM. GENERAL VFR CIGS FOR MOST OF
TODAY WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS TNT NEAR STORMS. SOME VISBYS ISSUES
POSSIBLE EARLY THUR 06-12Z WITH INC BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL AND ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO
REMAIN SSW 12-18 BUT SFC GUSTS IN THUNDER COULD APPROACH 35KTS WITH
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT TNT. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...MS JUL 08
SHORT TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>059-070-071-181645-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MINNESOTA BORDER...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WORK THEIR
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. BY THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD REACH
FROM WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE WATERLOO AREA...AND
POINTS NORTH. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH GENERAL RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND AN INCH...AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM AROUND 5 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-181645-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1136 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF
AND ON SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JUNGBLUTH