Severe Thunderstorm Warning 391, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE STATE WITH LINE OF TSRA FORMING
AHD OF IT.  S/WV PUSHING NE OUT OF THE RCKYS IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTIVE DVLPMT.  HAVE HAD SOME SVR WX ALONG THE INTERACTION OF
THE WARM AIR POUSH WITH THE CURRENTLY NR A KDBQ-KFRM LN.  WILL SEE
TSRA INC SLOWLY OVR THE NXT FEW HRS WITH MAIN THREAT THAT OF WIND.
HAIL WL BE LMTD BY HI FRZL LVLS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  CORES WELL ABV DONOVAN CRIT PRODUCING LTL MORE THAN PEA TP
MARBLE SIZE DUE LACK OF TILTING OF CELLS AND VRY DEEP MOIST LYR.
CDFNT WILL PASS S OF IA ON TUE WITH CHC FOR TSRA REMAINING OVR THE
SERN HALF OF STATE IN THE MRNG...AND SERN THIRD IN THE AFTN.  HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABT WK WV FST IN PROGS MOVG ALNG FNT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DVLPMT OVR SRN IA LATE TUE AFTN AND EVE IN THE
UNCAPPED AIR.  OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON DOING ANYTHING WITH THAT FOR NOW
DUE GREAT UNCERTAINTIES.  OTR CONCERN IS FOR FLOODING AS ECHOES ARE
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS.  WILL GO WITH A FFA OVR THE NRN THIRD
OF IA...FM HWY 20 N.  QUIET WX FOR A COUPLE DAYS AFT THAT AND WILL
AWAIT THE NXT SYS THIS WKND.  WILL BE A TRICKLY FCST WITH TEMPS FOR
SUN AND MON DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE PCPN GETS.  EXPET AT
LEAST THE NRN HLF OF IA TO REMAIN NO WARMER THAN THE LO 80S AND CUD
BE EVEN COOLER IF RAFL IS WDSPRD AS IT IS SUGGESTED IT MAY BE.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT KFOD AND KMCW...DURING THE EVENING AT KALO KDMX...AND
TONIGHT AT KOTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KALO...KDMX...AND KOTM...WITH ONLY A FEW
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT MOST TERMINALS BEHIND THE
STORMS...WITH THESE CLEARING OUT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...LEE
PUBLIC...MS JUL 08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-082115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
405 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
NICKEL HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED DURING THIS TIME.

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>073-081-082-092-082115-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-
UNION-TAYLOR-
405 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 69.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNT OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND TO 70 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE A SECONDARY THREAT THROUGH 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

IAZ074-075-083>086-093>097-082115-
MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
405 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM
AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FAB

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