Severe Thunderstorm Warning 379, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES STILL LINGERING OVER IOWA THIS MORNING
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION THOUGH THE SFC FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH AND NOW LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN IOWA TODAY. THE RUC AND NAM BOTH
HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL WITH SFC AND 850 MB BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND FIRING STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH ENTIRE LINE
LIFTING NORTH. STORMS MAY PERCOLATE OVER NORTHERN IOWA ALL MORNING
THOUGH THE GREATER FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. MCV OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FLOW THIS MORNING AND BEGIN TO OVERRIDE THE WARM FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE PULSY WITH LACK OF OVERALL
SHEAR AND DESPITE BRIEF UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATIONS...HAIL HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO REALIZE AT THE SFC WITH STORMS NEAR VERTICAL AND HAIL
TRYING TO FALL THROUGH THE HEAVY RAIN CORE RESULTING IN ENHANCED
MELTING. SHEAR WILL HOWEVER BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MCV WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS SUGGESTING
A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...HAIL WILL BE EASIER TO PRODUCE WITH SIMILAR CORE
HEIGHTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT BECAUSE THE HAIL WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE HEAVY RAIN. NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. AN ENHANCED TORNADIC THREAT ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY NEAR 200 M2/S2. AFTER EARLY POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...STORMS LIKELY WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A QUASI LINEAR (QLCS) TYPE EVENT AS LOW LEVEL SR
HELICITIES REMAIN HIGH.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 24 HRS. A SEASONAL WARM
LAYER DEPTH NEAR 14 KFT...SLOW MOVING STORMS AND PWATS AOA 2 INCHES
WITH SUSTAINED MOISTURE ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST THREAT FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
HEADLINES THROUGH WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ESCAPING HEAVY RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT DID RECEIVE HEAVY AMOUNTS THE
PAST 24 HOURS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE IT FAIRLY WELL WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY AND
WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AND MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
MAINTAINED DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN IOWA WITH PRECIPITATION IF
IT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT KFOD AND KMCW...DURING THE EVENING AT KALO KDMX...AND
TONIGHT AT KOTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KALO...KDMX...AND KOTM...WITH ONLY A FEW
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT MOST TERMINALS BEHIND THE
STORMS...WITH THESE CLEARING OUT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...LEE
PUBLIC...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>046-081100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
548 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP.
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...65 MPH WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED DURING THIS TIME.

IAZ047>050-057>062-070>073-081-082-092-081100-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-
548 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
INTENSE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL...65 MPH WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PROTONS OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED DURING THIS TIME.

IAZ074-075-083>086-093>097-081100-
MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
548 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 65 MPH WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PROTONS OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ON TUESDAY FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DONAVON

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