Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/...
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
MERGE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWING MUCAPE GRADIENT AND FED BY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SVR STORMS THANKS TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OWING TO STORM ORGANIZATION. SFC WARM
FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...AND COULD
BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION AFTER THE MORNINGS MCS
ACTIVITY MOVES OUT. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND TRAINING STORMS
CONTINUE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING. BUT I WILL TRIM
OFF A FEW OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SINCE CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO TRAIN UP THERE. THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOCUSES SOUTH AND WEST
OF IOWA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHT
FALLS INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA SHOULD
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. CONVECTION WEST OF IOWA WILL
LIKELY MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES...THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS IN
PLAY ON THURSDAY...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE A NOD TO THURSDAY AS BEING A
DAY WITH THE GREATER THREAT.

BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF CALM
AND SEASONAL WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION 03/12Z...
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ENDING THE THUNDERSTORMS BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
TO 40KT AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT KOTM BEFORE THEN. WINDS
WILL BE SQUIRRELY BEHIND CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BEFORE
GOING BACK TO EASTERLY. CEILINGS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
TODAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DO NOT EXPECT MORE TSTMS TODAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ACROSS SRN IA AFT 21Z. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AND VSBY ANTICIPATED TO
COME DOWN INTO IFR RANGE AFT 06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

&&

PUBLIC...MOYER
AVIATION...MOYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
533 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

IAZ033>035-044>048-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-041045-
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-
GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-
MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
533 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE THREAT FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL NOON TODAY.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR NUMEROUS POINTS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING AND MORE RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...AND AGAIN AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-036>039-049-050-041045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-
533 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR NUMEROUS POINTS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING AND MORE RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...AND AGAIN AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

MOYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DES MOINES              41.58N 93.62W
06/03/2008                   POLK               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLASH DLOODING REPORTED AT HICKMAN AND MERLE HAY RD, MLK
            DRIVE NEAR DOUGLAS AND EUCLID AVE...ROADS FLOODED CURB TO
            CURB IN SOME CASES AS REPORTED BY KCCI-TV.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ADEL                    41.61N 94.03W
06/03/2008                   DALLAS             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            8 TO 10 INCH TREE BLOWN DOWN, SMALLER LIMBS DOWN

&&

RVACHALE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE MADRID             41.92N 93.75W
06/03/2008                   BOONE              IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL COUNTY GRAVEL ROADS UNDER WATER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
            BOONE COUNTY.

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DES MOINES              41.58N 93.62W
06/03/2008                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SE 5TH SOUTH OF COURT AVE TO SCOTT, 5 TO 6 INCHES OF
            WATER. SE 6TH AT RACCOON 6 INCHES OF WATER ONE HALF BLOCK
            EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSECTION IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
656 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MINGO                   41.77N 93.28W
06/03/2008                   JASPER             IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN MINGO AT 615 AM CDT AS REPORTED BY
            KCCI-TV.

&&

RVACHALE