River Flood Warning 100, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/...
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
MERGE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWING MUCAPE GRADIENT AND FED BY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SVR STORMS THANKS TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OWING TO STORM ORGANIZATION. SFC WARM
FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...AND COULD
BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION AFTER THE MORNINGS MCS
ACTIVITY MOVES OUT. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND TRAINING STORMS
CONTINUE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING. BUT I WILL TRIM
OFF A FEW OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SINCE CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO TRAIN UP THERE. THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOCUSES SOUTH AND WEST
OF IOWA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHT
FALLS INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA SHOULD
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. CONVECTION WEST OF IOWA WILL
LIKELY MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES...THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS IN
PLAY ON THURSDAY...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE A NOD TO THURSDAY AS BEING A
DAY WITH THE GREATER THREAT.

BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF CALM
AND SEASONAL WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION 03/12Z...
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ENDING THE THUNDERSTORMS BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
TO 40KT AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT KOTM BEFORE THEN. WINDS
WILL BE SQUIRRELY BEHIND CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BEFORE
GOING BACK TO EASTERLY. CEILINGS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
TODAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DO NOT EXPECT MORE TSTMS TODAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ACROSS SRN IA AFT 21Z. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AND VSBY ANTICIPATED TO
COME DOWN INTO IFR RANGE AFT 06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

&&

PUBLIC...MOYER
AVIATION...MOYER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
737 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     TSTM WND GST     EDDYVILLE               41.16N 92.63W
06/03/2008  M58.00 MPH       WAPELLO            IA   MESONET

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
739 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRINNELL                41.74N 92.72W
06/03/2008  M67 MPH          POWESHIEK          IA   AWOS

&&

RVACHALE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
919 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E KNOXVILLE           41.32N 93.06W
06/03/2008                   MARION             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED AT MCKIMBER DRIVE AND 170TH WITH WATER
            RUNNING OVER THE ROAD...ROAD CLOSED.

&&

RVACHALE