Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 151220
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

ALC093-151245-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-080315T1245Z/
MARION AL-
720 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MARION COUNTY...

AT 720 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES
NORTH OF HACKLEBURG TO SHOTSVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAMILTON...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESTON...HAMILTON...PEARCES MILL...TESSNER...BRINN AND BEAR CREEK

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3423 8819 3434 8812 3433 8806 3433 8776
      3432 8776 3432 8764 3409 8764 3411 8774
      3411 8782 3415 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1220Z 277DEG 49KT 3460 8785 3422 8808

$$

JONES/90

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THIS MOVES NORTHWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE CHANCES WILL THEN
TRANSITION EASTWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE LEAVING MOST OF
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WEST WINDS WILL THEN KICK IN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH.

16

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL ADVECTION AFFECTING THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS...CAUSING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH NEARING 80 DEGREES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING STILL EXISTS.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS
THEY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT NOT EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
40S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO DIFFERENT KINDS OF WEATHER HEADING AT UP FROM TWO DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.  DECK OF LOW CLOUDS HEADING NORTH...
HAS ALREADY ENGULFED TOI AND MGM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON TO THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ANOUT 09Z.  CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STRATUS DECK HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET.  THEY MAY
DROP BELOW 1000 FEET AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...BUT SHOULDNT GET AS
LOW AS 500.

COMING AT US FROM THE WEST IS A BIG MASS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT.  THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TCL BY 07-08Z...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THERE...IT IT HOLDS
TOGETHER.  I WENT WITH VCTS INNITIALLY...SINCE (EVEN WITH THE
CONVECTION RELATIVELY CLOSE) MY CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW ON HOW
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SHOWERS/STORMS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE ONE THING I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IS THAT IT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF MGM AND TOI FOR NOW.

AFTER SUNRSIE...I TRIED TO INDICATE A GRADUAL BUT EVENTUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS...WITH THE CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND THEN
BREAKING UP.  CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR IF NOT BY 00Z
TOMORROW...THEN QUITE SOON AFTER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-161010-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
610 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A
VERNON...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...CENTRE LINE.  THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VERNON...CHILTON...PHENIX CITY LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL
7 PM FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER
20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SOME STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THROUGH 6 PM.

STEFKOVICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 AM     HAIL             5 S ALABASTER           33.15N 86.81W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT CR-22 AND CR-16 IN
            MONTEVALLO.

0350 AM     HAIL             4 SE ALABASTER          33.18N 86.78W
03/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PENNY SIZED HAIL AT THE NWS OFFICE IN CALERA.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
403 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 AM     HAIL             3 S ALABASTER           33.18N 86.82W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON AL-119.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     HAIL             LINEVILLE               33.31N 85.75W
03/15/2008  M0.50 INCH       CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
605 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     TSTM WND GST     LINEVILLE               33.31N 85.75W
03/15/2008  M51 MPH          CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     HAIL             LINEVILLE               33.31N 85.75W
03/15/2008  M0.50 INCH       CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ASHLAND            33.30N 85.80W
03/15/2008                   CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLAY COUNTY EMA REPORTS COLLAPSE OF AN AIRCRAFT HANGAR
            WITH DEBRIS BLOWN 100-150 YDS.

&&

GGOGGINS