Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION AND MESOSCALE.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

QUICK LOOK AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THINGS ARE CHANGING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL TRANSGRESS EAST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BIG THING TO NOTE IS THE CAP
AT LEAST ACCORDING THE 17Z BMX SOUNDING HAS LIFTED AND IS NOW AROUND
650 MB. CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNSTABLE ABOVE AND BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE
CAPE IS 1800 J/KG. LI IS EQUAL TO -7.6. THIS INFORMATION WAS WITH A
SURFACE TEMP OF 75 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT OF 61 DEGREES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDES EAST...THIS WILL WORK INTO THIS RICH ENVIRONMENT
AND COULD BEGIN THE FIRING MECHANISM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE A SPEED SHEAR
THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AS THE CAPE ALOFT ACTUALLY IS AROUND 300 J/KG. SUN REALLY
BEGINNING TO SHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 59.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND THE PACKAGES HAVE BEEN
SENT. HOURLY TEMPS WILL QUITE TRICKY WITH ANY STORM THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP. OVERALL 80S ARE UP TO MGM AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRONG SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS COMBINED WITH MIXING ARE
ERODING CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND TURN NW
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  IN ADDITION...TEMPS
GOING INTO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE 60S WILL RESULT IN VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AND HAVE MENTIONED VCTS MOST LOCATIONS AS PINPOINTING
DIRECT HIT AT AIRPORT WILL BE DIFFICULT.  EXCEPTION IS KANB AS
BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED CLOSE TO THIS LOCATION AND WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ACTIVITY THROUGH AFTERNOON.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL ZONES AND COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-161200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED UNTIL 6 PM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EAST ALABAMA
UNTIL 6 PM.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE
65...AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 7
PM FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 20
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SOME STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THROUGH 6 PM.

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
858 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

ALZ015-151445-
WALKER-
858 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 856 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR JASPER...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LYNNS PARK.
  SIPSEY.
  EMPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHLAND LAKE           33.89N 86.42W
03/15/2008                   BLOUNT             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHLAND
            LAKES.

&&

SUNGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1026 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW HUEYTOWN           33.47N 87.04W
03/15/2008                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MODERATE DAMAGE TO THE FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH LOCATED AT
            5951 WARRIOR RIVER ROAD.

&&

SUNGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE PLEASANT GAP       34.02N 85.48W
03/15/2008                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE SPRING GARDEN
            AREA...SOUTHWEST OF PLEASANT GAP. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE PIEDMONT           33.99N 85.56W
03/15/2008                   CHEROKEE           AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...DAMAGE TO A BARN AT 2295 COUNTY ROAD
            10. MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN OVER ROAD.

&&

SUNGER