Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THIS MOVES NORTHWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE CHANCES WILL THEN
TRANSITION EASTWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE LEAVING MOST OF
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WEST WINDS WILL THEN KICK IN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH.

16

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL ADVECTION AFFECTING THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS...CAUSING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH NEARING 80 DEGREES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING STILL EXISTS.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS
THEY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT NOT EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
40S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO DIFFERENT KINDS OF WEATHER HEADING AT UP FROM TWO DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.  DECK OF LOW CLOUDS HEADING NORTH...
HAS ALREADY ENGULFED TOI AND MGM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON TO THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ANOUT 09Z.  CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STRATUS DECK HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET.  THEY MAY
DROP BELOW 1000 FEET AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...BUT SHOULDNT GET AS
LOW AS 500.

COMING AT US FROM THE WEST IS A BIG MASS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT.  THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TCL BY 07-08Z...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THERE...IT IT HOLDS
TOGETHER.  I WENT WITH VCTS INNITIALLY...SINCE (EVEN WITH THE
CONVECTION RELATIVELY CLOSE) MY CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW ON HOW
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SHOWERS/STORMS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE ONE THING I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IS THAT IT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF MGM AND TOI FOR NOW.

AFTER SUNRSIE...I TRIED TO INDICATE A GRADUAL BUT EVENTUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS...WITH THE CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND THEN
BREAKING UP.  CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR IF NOT BY 00Z
TOMORROW...THEN QUITE SOON AFTER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
848 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-160130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
848 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 3 AM IN WEST
ALABAMA...AND THE LAST WAVE OF STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN EASTERN
ALABAMA THROUGH 3 PM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADOES. THE
AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE
CITIES OF LIVINGSTON...CLANTON...AND LAFAYETTE...NORTHWARD.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1257 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 AM     HAIL             MILLPORT                33.56N 88.08W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE CITY OF MILLPORT.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     HAIL             1 S CARROLLTON          33.25N 88.10W
03/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       PICKENS            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON STATE ROUTE 17 JUST SOUTH OF
            CARROLLTON.

&&

61