Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE ON THE AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE FORECAST.
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST CUTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA.  ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED CU
(SOME SORT OF CONVERGENCE ZONE) STRETCHES SW-NE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.  MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A BIT OF A CAP
AROUND 700 MB...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD THAT
CAP BE ERODED OR OVERCOME.

LIKELY POPS STILL SEEM JUSTIFIED FOR THE NORTH HALF...AND I EXPECT
RW/TRW COVERAGE TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOOK FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE TO SLOW.  THOUGH THE FIRST HINT WAS WITH THE 00Z RUNS..BOTH
THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE HINTING AT THE FORMATION OF A MCS IN THE
AREA OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND HAVE IT
MOVING INTO THE STATE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.  THIS IS A QUESTIONABLE
FEATURE BUT ONE THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  HAVE RAISED
POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
AGAIN FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR
ONCE AGAIN.  ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR REDEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY.

27/SWU

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

STILL LOOKING RATHER WARM AND DRY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 95 OR 96 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. WILL TACK A FEW DEGREES ONTO GUIDANCE AND GO WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE 93 TO 94. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPERATURES NOT COMFORTABLE TAKING ISOLATED WORDING TOTALLY OUT
OF THE FORECAST. THICKNESSES LOWER A BIT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND..BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AT ALL TAFS SITES
TODAY...STARTING IN THE NORTH AROUND 18Z AND EXTENDING TO MGM AND
TOI BY 21Z.  STARTED ADDING CB TO ALL SITES AT 16Z AND TRENDED
TOWARDS VCTS IN THE NORTH BY 20Z AND VCSH IN THE SOUTH BY 22Z.  KEPT
VIS VFR...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR
IN THE VICINITY OF TS.  TS WILL BE IN CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SCALE +TS EFFECTING TCL AND
EET AFTER 00Z.  WAITING FOR NEXT ISSUANCE AND NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE
ADDING TO TAFS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

CORRECTED TYPO...

ALZ011>015-017>050-021112-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
611 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 12 PM IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 CAN EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 5 PM.

THE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT BE CONFINED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THOUGH HEATING WILL EXACERBATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AFTER
SUNSET...SO STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND MAKE SURE YOUR RADIO ALERT TONE IS TURNED ON BEFORE GOING TO
BED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY...AS THE FRONT FROM SUNDAY WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE STATE.  AGAIN...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SUNDAY.

27/SWU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ALZ024-011715-
JEFFERSON-
1132 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

AT 1131 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SYLVAN SPRINGS TO HUEYTOWN
TO ALABAMA ADVENTURE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HUEYTOWN TO HUEYTOWN TO BESSEMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
18 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MCADORY.
  ALABAMA ADVENTURE.
  DOLOMITE.
  RAIMUND.
  MULGA.
  ADAMSVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JD/81

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYTOWN                 33.55N 87.00W
06/01/2008                   JEFFERSON          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEDIUM SIZED LIMBS WERE BROKEN OFF BY HIGH WINDS.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             CLAY                    33.70N 86.60W
06/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED ON OLD SPRINGVILLE ROAD.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             1 SSW PINSON-CLAY-CHALK 33.66N 86.67W
06/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT LIVINGSTON OAKS APARTMENTS IN CENTER POINT.

&&

61