Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA. RADAR RETURNS SHOW DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACES AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA. COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -15C THIS MORNING AND THE BISMARCK SOUNDING
INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. MODERATE CAPE IN THE RANGE OF
1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES IN THE -2 TO -4 CELSIUS RANGE.
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MODIFY THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE STATE
INTO AN INVERTED V PROFILE. THUS WE EXPECT THAT THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS
THE GLASGOW SOUNDING INDICATED NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEGATIVE
LIS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER PLACES CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN THE
SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

AFTER THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE...A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GARDEN VARIETY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND 500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY BY
MONDAY. AFTER SUNDAY EXPECT AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
AND A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS HELD IN
CHECK THIS COMING WEEK AS CONTINUES SHORT WAVES BEING EJECTED FROM A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN SAID
RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WED THROUGH SATURDAY TO OUR LOCAL AREA. THE RIDGE DOES HOWEVER
INCREASE THICKNESS VALUES ENOUGH WHERE WE WILL SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL ND...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DYNAMIC MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST AND CENTRAL ND
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. CIGS
AND VIS IN HEAVIER TSRA MAY FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS...PERHAPS BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. SHRA AND TSRA WILL DIMINISH AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET (2-4Z). A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO MAINLY PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ND AROUND 5-11Z (MOT)...POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH
AS BIS AND JMS AROUND 10-12Z. LOW CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT/DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HW/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
455 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-151000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
455 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008 /355 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK.

KJB