Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1109 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.UPDATE...
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT AND INCREASING IN
AERIAL COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND. LATEST
MODEL DATA INDICATES SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THUS WILL SEND ANOTHER ZFP UPDATE
TO INCLUDE ISOLD THUNDER FOR ALL ZONES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A PLETHORA OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT
UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TWO JET STREAKS
STRETCHING FROM NV/UT AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MSAS SHOWS A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND BENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE TROF AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. WILL KEEP
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD 00Z THU AS A
DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN. THIS WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE. H5 TEMPS OF -20C TO -24C AND H85-H5 LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 6.5 C/KM WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTS ON FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE. WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND +4C TO +5C THIS AFT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFT...EXPECT HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMER ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES COMING
THROUGH SAT/SUN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THEREAFTER...500MB HEIGHTS ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RISE AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MON/TUE. EXTENDED MODELS
BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WED/THU
BRINGING BACK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
AERODROMES TODAY WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
00Z THU. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY WHICH WILL FURTHER
REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
417 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>044-047-048-120930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
417 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008 /317 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER
OFF TOWARD EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR A DECREASE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...IF
ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...PLEASE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH YOUR REPORT.

NDZ045-046-050-051-120930-
SIOUX-EMMONS-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
417 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT/700 AM MDT/
FOR CENTRAL SIOUX...DICKEY...MCINTOSH AND SOUTHERN EMMONS
COUNTIES...

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE COMMON
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREA WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...IF
ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...PLEASE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH YOUR REPORT.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
856 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW FULLERTON         46.18N 98.43W
06/11/2008                   DICKEY             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREE BRANCHES 4 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER

&&

LLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELLENDALE               46.00N 98.52W
06/11/2008                   DICKEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE 1 FT DIAMETER BROKEN DOWN AND 3 INCH BRANCHES DOWN

&&

LLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE ASHLEY             46.08N 99.28W
06/11/2008                   MCINTOSH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES BROKEN DOWN AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF

&&

LLP