Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
251 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A PLETHORA OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT
UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TWO JET STREAKS
STRETCHING FROM NV/UT AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MSAS SHOWS A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND BENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE TROF AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. WILL KEEP
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD 00Z THU AS A
DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN. THIS WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE. H5 TEMPS OF -20C TO -24C AND H85-H5 LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 6.5 C/KM WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTS ON FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE. WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND +4C TO +5C THIS AFT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFT...EXPECT HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMER ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES COMING
THROUGH SAT/SUN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THEREAFTER...500MB HEIGHTS ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RISE AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MON/TUE. EXTENDED MODELS
BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WED/THU
BRINGING BACK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
AERODROMES TODAY WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
00Z THU. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY WHICH WILL FURTHER
REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...SOUTHERN EMMONS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...DICKEY
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND MCINTOSH COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 800 AM CDT OR 700 AM MDT.

&&

KS/TWH/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-110945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008 /337 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENT LATE SPRING STORM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50
INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND THEN EAST
OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IF ANY
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...PLEASE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH YOUR REPORT.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
236 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 AM     HAIL             SELFRIDGE               46.04N 100.92W
06/11/2008  M1.00 INCH       SIOUX              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     TSTM WND GST     STRASBURG               46.13N 100.16W
06/11/2008  E60 MPH          EMMONS             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUST TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

KSIMOSKO