Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG MIDDLE LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO IS INDUCING INTENSE
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS RESULTANT
NORTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HELPS SET THE STAGE
FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COUPLING AND STRONG RESULTANT SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA...ACCORDING TO TUESDAY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SLANTWISE
ASCENT RELEASES CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 100 AM CDT WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT AND COOL MIDDLE LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DRY LOW LEVELS TO KEEP A
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND DYNAMIC
COOLING FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE ENTIRE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NEARLY ZONAL SATURDAY BOUNDED BY TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ON IN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OFF THE WEST COAST
WEST OF WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH
SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL
HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ENOUGH TO BEGIN FORMING A RIDGE OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGING WARMER DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN DETECTED BY AREA RADARS.  LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND...BUT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THEN BEGINS TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG.  MVFR AND IFR CONDONES WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SCHECK/TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-110945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008 /337 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENT LATE SPRING STORM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50
INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND THEN EAST
OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IF ANY
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...PLEASE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH YOUR REPORT.

KS