Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FREQUENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR MASS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SETTLE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 500 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 700 PM THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS....BUT THUS FAR ONLY LARGE HAIL
HAS BEEN REPORTED. ATMOSPHERE IS ESPECIALLY CONDUSIVE TO PRODUCING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAIL UP TO 1 OR 1.25 INCHES IN SIZE.

SEVERE WEATHER ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

AN 1800 UTC BALLOON LAUNCH WAS PERFORMED AND WILL SOON BE AVAILABLE.

AFTER AROUND 01Z-03Z TONIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
OVER...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
KEEPS THE REGION GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL.

SHOWERS WILL FEATURE A DIURNAL VARIATION WITH THE BEST CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST ABOUT VERTICALLY STACKED WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
A H500 TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE ESTERN PORTION OF THE US AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST.  WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ERN NY TERMINALS ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOX UNTIL 2300 UTC.  A
COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.  LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH TO KPOU BTWN
0000-1200 UTC/TUE.

WE ARE THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH KGFL AND
KALB WILL BE BETWEEN 1900 UTC AND 2100 UTC WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS.  THERE MAYBE TSRA/S THEREAFTER...BUT WE WILL COVER IT WITH
VCTS/S FOR NOW.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS TOWARDS 0400
UTC/MIDNIGHT.  SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AFTER 0600 UTC WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE WIND.

KPOU...A LINE OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
2100-2300 UTC.  IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. WE
THINK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE UP TO MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE 0300 UTC-0600 UTC.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE S/SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS
OR GREATER IN ANY CONVECTION PRIOR 0000 UTC.  THE WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT
10-15 KTS AFTER 1200 UTC.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...UNSETTLED. MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR...IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THORUGH THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND YHUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE FROM 50 PERCENT THIS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 25 OR 30 MPH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ALBANY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. SOME LOCAL URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OCCUR.

MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. TOTAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH. LARGER RIVERS
WILL SEE MINOR CHANGES IN STAGE. SMALL CREEKS WILL SEE SOME SHARP
RISES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...MAGLARAS/WASULA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1152 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-171600-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1152 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK IS REQUESTED FOR ALL
COUNTIES IN THE ALBANY COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN
100 PM AND 700 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

NYZ042-043-162030-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HAGUE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITEHALL...AND
MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GLENBURNIE...OTTENBURGS RAMP...6 MILES NORTH OF CLEMONS AND 6 MILES
NORTH OF DRESDEN CENTER BY 405 PM EDT
PUTNAM STATION AND PUTNAM BY 410 PM EDT

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GEORGE GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             KINDERHOOK              42.39N 73.70W
06/16/2008  M1.00 INCH       COLUMBIA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ROKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             NORTH ADAMS             42.69N 73.11W
06/16/2008  M0.88 INCH       BERKSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ROKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             KINDERHOOK              42.39N 73.70W
06/16/2008  M0.75 INCH       COLUMBIA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ROKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             KINDERHOOK              42.39N 73.70W
06/16/2008  M0.88 INCH       COLUMBIA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ROKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

NYZ047-162100-
SCHOHARIE NY-
432 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN SCHOHARIE COUNTY...

AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BREAKABEEN...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COBLESKILL...AND MOVING
EAST AT 28 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LIVINGSTONVILLE AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF SCHOHARIE BY 440 PM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

WASULA/FRUGIS