Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE  WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 500 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 700 PM THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ATMOSPHERE IS ESPECIALLY
CONDUSIVE TO PRODUCING LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAIL UP TO 1 OR 1.25 INCHES
IN SIZE.

AN INFORMATIONAL NOTE...DUE TO THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY...WE WILL BE DOING AN 1800 UTC BALLOON LAUNCH. CLOUDS HAVE
BROKEN UP ACROSS THE REGION AS OF NOON...AND WE ARE EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HEATING TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 HPA LAYER/ INCREASING TO AROUND 7C/KM.

UTILIZING NAM BUFKIT PROFILES FOR ALBANY...THE CONDITIONAL MAGLENTA
INDEX DEVELOPED LOCALLY IN THE 90/S YIELDS A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE ALY FCST AREA.

PARAMETERS USED IN THE INDEX:
SURFACE BASE CAPE = 1300 J/KG
EHI = 0.9
0-3KM = 168 M2/S2
STORM SPEED = 27 KTS
MAX SOUNDING WIND = 60 KTS

ALSO MAX HAIL SIZE LOCAL EQUATION INDICATES HAIL STONES IN THE
1-1.25 RANGE MAY OCCUR /QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CORE OF COLDEST AIR GRADUALLY ADVERTS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...PARKING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TENDS TO LIFT INTO CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND. SOME PERIODS OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THEN COLD AIR ALOFT AIDS IN FORMATION WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER. STILL...WITH WEST FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SOME PERIODIC BREAKS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL
AVERAGING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER/MID 70S. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE TO NO CAPE FORE CASTED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOME LOOSE CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WEST FLOW CONTINUES...SO SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERCAST AND
SHOWERS SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SOME
AREAS...AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

WITH THESE UPPER LOWS...THE FORECAST CAN GET A BIT REPETITIVE
UNTIL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LITTLE PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY CAN BE
IDENTIFIED AND TRACKED WITHIN 24 HOURS OF AFFECTING THE REGION.
SO...THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECASTS HAVE A HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER...AERIAL EXTENT OF
SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROFF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN EMF AND GS MODELS. THE GS
HAD A SLIGHTLY LOWER CENTER /552 VS 555/. GS IS ALSO TWO TO
THREE DEGREES COLDER AT 850.  CIRCULATION PATTERN AROUND THE
UPPER/AFC LOWS WILL BRING A MIX OF COOL AND MOIST AIR FROM
THE HUDSON BAY AREA ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROFF SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...UNTIL A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY.
THE GS AND CM MODELS BEGIN TO DIGRESS SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE CM CONTINUES TO MOVE THE UPPER TROFF SLOWLY EAST
WHILE THE GS DIGS THE TROFF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW ON SATURDAY. THE GS ALSO DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW AT THE JUNCTURE OF THE AXIS OF THE TROFF WITH THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN ALABAMA...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES THIS LOW TO THE GEORGIA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
LATEST GS RUN WEAKENS THE SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE
DEVELOPING A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH OVER THE OCEAN OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE CM APPEARS TO MERGE A WEAK LOW MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND ONE MOVING UP THE COAST
AS A 500 HAP TROFF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOPS A
CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE HAS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM WED/THU OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS RISING
TO NEAR 60...AND IF A BERMUDA HIGH DOES COME INTO PLACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE CM BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AS AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THE LATEST GS RUN KEEPS THE HEAVY PRECIS
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS STAGE...AN INTERESTING WAIT-AND-
SEE SCENARIO. FOR THE MOST PART...CONTINUED THE USE OF GM OS
FOR POPULATING MOST OF THE LONG TERM GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ERN NY TERMINALS ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOX UNTIL 2300 UTC.  A
COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.  LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH TO KPOU BTWN
0000-1200 UTC/TUE.

WE ARE THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH KGFL AND
KALB WILL BE BETWEEN 1900 UTC AND 2100 UTC WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS.  THERE MAYBE TSRA/S THEREAFTER...BUT WE WILL COVER IT WITH
VCTS/S FOR NOW.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS TOWARDS 0400
UTC/MIDNIGHT.  SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AFTER 0600 UTC WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE WIND.

KPOU...A LINE OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
2100-2300 UTC.  IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. WE
THINK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE UP TO MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE 0300 UTC-0600 UTC.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE S/SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS
OR GREATER IN ANY CONVECTION PRIOR 0000 UTC.  THE WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT
10-15 KTS AFTER 1200 UTC.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...UNSETTLED. MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR...IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WET FLAG DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT AROUND DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH A MARINE STRATUS LAYER AND WHERE RAIN
FELL IN THE PRAWN HOURS. HOWEVER THE CLOUDS WILL BLOCK
RADIATION SO DEW FORMATION IS UNLIKELY. THE HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ON TONIGHT AND FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND THEN
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUST UP TO 25 MPH DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND MAIN STEM RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE FROM
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY WITH MOST AREAS GETTING LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. BUT AGAIN...A FEW AREAS COULD GET OVER AN INCH
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR REPEATEDLY. AGAIN...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAPID FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
PAVED SURFACES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED SO THE LARGER RIVERS WILL
ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THE RAIN FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SOAK INTO THE
GROUND AND NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...MAGLARAS/WASULA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1152 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-171600-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1152 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK IS REQUESTED FOR ALL
COUNTIES IN THE ALBANY COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN
100 PM AND 700 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

NYZ038>040-082-161745-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN FULTON NY-
109 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER MOVING INTO MONTGOMERY
AND FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LITTLE FALLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DOLGEVILLE BY 115 PM EDT
6 MILES NORTH OF ST. JOHNSVILLE BY 120 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF STRATFORD BY 125 PM EDT
8 MILES NORTH OF EPHRATAH BY 130 PM EDT
CAROGA LAKE AND CAROGA LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 140 PM EDT
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLOVERSVILLE BY 145 PM EDT

WASULA/FRUGIS